USD/CAD – Canadian Dollar Unchanged, US GDP Next

The Canadian dollar is showing little movement in the Wednesday session. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.2808, down 0.07% on the day. On the release front, there are no Canadian events on the schedule. The US publishes Preliminary GDP and Pending Home Sales and Janet Yellen will testify before a congressional committee.

Canadian inflation indicators pointed upwards on Tuesday, but the Canadian dollar couldn’t take advantage and lost more ground against the US currency. The Raw Materials Price Index jumped 3.8% in October, rebounding after a decline of 0.1% a month earlier. This marked the indicator’s strongest gain in 2017. The Industrial Product Price Index also rebounded after a decline, posting a gain of 1.0%. Elsewhere, Bank of Governor Stephen Poloz sounded upbeat about the stability of the financial system, noting that the labor market was strong and higher interest rates had helped cool the housing market frenzy.

Fed Chair Designate Jerome Powell testified before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday. Powell said that he favored tailoring regulations for small banks, leaving the toughest regulations for the big players. Powell was cautious and diplomatic during the hearing, saying that the case is building for a December rate hike, and refused to express an opinion on the Trump tax bill. He will replace Janet Yellen in February, and is widely expected to continue Yellen’s monetary stance of small, gradual rate hikes.

Powell inherits an economy that is in excellent shape, but persistently low inflation remains a nagging problem. Fed policymakers have differing views on what to do about inflation, with some members proposing that the Fed drop its 2 percent target, in favor of a “gradually rising path” for prices. The Fed remains confounded by low inflation and wage growth, despite a labor market that is at full capacity. Still, the Fed will likely pull the rate trigger next month, and could raise rates up to 3 more times in 2018 if the economy continues to expand at its current pace.

USD/CAD Fundamentals 

Wednesday (November 29)

  • 8:30 US Preliminary GDP. Estimate 3.3%
  • 8:30 US FOMC Member Charles Dudley Speaks
  • 8:30 Preliminary GDP Price Index. Estimate 2.2%
  • 10:00 US Fed Chair Janet Yellen Testifies
  • 10:00 US Pending Home Sales. Estimate 1.1%
  • 10:30 US Crude Oil Inventories. Estimate -2.5M14:00 US Beige Book
  • All Day – OPEC Meetings

Thursday (November 30)

  • 8:30 Canadian Current Account
  • 8:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 241K
  • 8:30 US Personal Spending. Estimate 0.2%

*All release times are GMT

*Key events are in bold

USD/CAD for Wednesday, November 29, 2017

USD/CAD, November 29 at 8:00 EDT

Open: 1.2815 High: 1.2848 Low: 1.2807 Close: 1.2808

USD/CAD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.2532 1.2630 1.2757 1.2860 1.3015 1.3165

USD/CAD was flat in the Asian session. In European trade, the pair edged higher but retracted

  • 1.2757 is providing support
  • 1.2860 is the next resistance line
  • Current range: 1.2757 to 1.2860

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.2757, 1.2630, 1.2532 and 1.2432
  • Above: 1.2860, 1.3015 and 1.3165

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

USD/CAD ratio is showing movement towards short positions. Currently, long and short positions are an even split, indicative of a lack of trader bias as to what direction USD/CAD will take next.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.