USD/CAD – Canadian Dollar Steady, Wholesale Sales Ahead

The Canadian dollar has edged lower in the Monday session. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.2788, up 0.15% on the day. On the release front, the sole indicator is US CB Leading Index, with an estimate of 0.6%. On Tuesday, Canada releases Wholesale Sales and the US publishes Existing Home Sales. As well, US Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will speak at an event in New York City.

Like its southern neighbor, Canada continues to grapple with low inflation levels. There were no surprises on Friday, as CPI posted a negligible gain of 0.1% for October, matching the estimate. The Bank of Canada remains cautiously optimistic about inflation – on Wednesday, Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins said she expected wages to rise as the economy improved. Inflation levels remain well below the Bank’s inflation target of 2.0%, and the markets don’t expect another rate hike until 2018.

US housing numbers ended the week on a positive note, easily beating expectations. Building Permits for single-family homes jumped to 1.30 million, above the estimate of 1.25 million. The annualized pace of 839,000 building permits in October was the fastest since September 2007. Housing Start also sparkled, accelerating to 1.29 million, compared to an estimate of 1.19 million. The catalyst for the strong numbers were hurricanes Harvey and Irma, which caused massive damage in the southern part of the US. With rebuilding efforts well underway, construction numbers should remain strong in the fourth quarter.

USD/CAD Fundamentals 

Monday (November 20)

  • 10:00 US CB Leading Index. Estimate 0.6%

Tuesday (November 21)

  • 8:30 Canadian Wholesale Sales. Estimate 0.6%
  • 10:00 US Existing Home Sales. Estimate 5.42M
  • 18:00 US Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen Speaks

*All release times are GMT

*Key events are in bold

USD/CAD for Monday, November 20, 2017

USD/CAD, November 20 at 7:55 EDT

Open: 1.2764 High: 1.2802 Low: 1.2755 Close: 1.2788

USD/CAD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.2532 1.2630 1.2757 1.2860 1.3015 1.3165

USD/CAD edged higher in the Asian session and is showing little movement in European trade

  • 1.2757 has switched to a support role. It is a weak line
  • 1.2860 is the next resistance line
  • Current range: 1.2757 to 1.2860

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.2757, 1.2630 and 1.2532
  • Above: 1.2860, 1.3015 and 1.3165

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

USD/CAD ratio is unchanged in the Monday session. Currently, long positions have a majority (59%), indicative of trader bias towards USD/CAD continuing to move higher.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.