USD/CAD – Canadian Dollar Subdued at Start of Week

USD/CAD is almost unchanged in the Monday session. In North American trade, the pair is trading at 1.3460. On the release front, it’s a very quiet start to the week. There are no Canadian releases until Thursday. In the US, there is one minor event on the schedule. On Tuesday, the US releases PPI, with the index expected to slip to 0.1%.

Canada’s economy continues to create jobs at an impressive clip, as the Canadian economy continues to expand thanks to the strong recovery south of the border. On Friday, Employment Change came in at 15.3 thousand. This was lower than the previous two readings, but easily beat the forecast of 0.6 thousand. The economy has created jobs for seven straight months, as the labor market continues to recover. The unemployment rate also improved, dropping from 6.8% to 6.6%. Still, these figures only tell part of the story. Wage growth remains soft, and many of the recent job gains have been part-time positions. The Canadian dollar posted only modest gains on Friday, as upward movement was limited by a very strong Nonfarm Payrolls report in the US.

The US economy continues to steam ahead at full speed, buoyed by a red-hot labor market. On Friday, Nonfarm Payrolls sparkled with a gain of 235 thousand. This easily beat the estimate of 196 thousand. The strong release makes it a virtual certainty that the Fed will raise rates by a quarter-point on Wednesday. Although a rate hike has been priced in by the markets, there have been disappointments in the past, so a rate move will likely give the dollar a boost against its major rivals. The solid job numbers also give President Trump a much-needed boost. Trump is under pressure to present an economic agenda, but the markets won’t mind giving him some additional breathing room with the economy performing well.

USD/CAD Fundamentals

Monday (March 13)

  • 10:00 US Labor Market Conditions Index

Tuesday (March 14)

  • 8:30 US PPI. Estimate 0.1%

*All release times are GMT

*Key events are in bold

USD/CAD for Monday, March 13, 2017

USD/CAD March 13 at 9:35 EST

Open: 1.3460 High: 1.3475 Low: 1.3437 Close: 1.3456

USD/CAD Technical

S1 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.3253 1.3371 1.3461 1.3551 1.3672 1.3784
  • USD/CAD edged lower in the Asian session and recovered in European trade. The pair is unchanged early in North American session
  • 1.3461 was tested earlier in support and remains a weak line
  • 1.3551 is the next resistance line

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.3461, 1.3371, 1.3253 and 1.3120
  • Above: 1.3551, 1.3672 and 1.3784
  • Current range: 1.3461 to 1.3551

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

USD/CAD ratio is unchanged in the Monday session. Currently, long positions have a strong majority (70%), indicative of trader bias towards USD/CAD breaking out and moving higher.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.