Gold prices are steady in Monday’s North American session, as the metal trades just above the $1200 level. The markets in the US are closed in observance of Martin Luther King Day, and thin liquidity means that traders can expect limited market movement. There are no US releases on the schedule. On Tuesday, Prime Minister Theresa May will deliver a speech in London, in which she is expected to discuss Brexit.
On Monday, there were media reports that Prime Minister May was prepared for a “hard” exit from the European Union. Under such an arrangement, Britain will relinquish access to the EU’s single market but will maintain control over its immigration policy. Predictably, the news sent the British pound below the 1.20 level for the first time since the “flash crash” in October. Markets on both sides of the pond will be monitoring Prime Minister May’s speech on Tuesday, in which she will likely address the Brexit issue. May’s speech could lead to volatility in gold prices – if May projects toughness and hints at a “hard” Brexit, investors could react negatively, sending the pound lower and gold prices higher.
Early in the New Year, the US consumer remains bullish about the economy. The UoM Consumer Sentiment in January was solid, but the markets had expected a stronger performance. The indicator was almost unchanged at 98.1, shy of the forecast of 98.6. Despite the optimism, US retail sales were a mix during the December holiday season. Retail Sales improved to 0.6%, edging above the estimate of 0.5%. However, much of the increase in spending was attributable to automobile sales, at the expense of other sectors of the economy. This was reflected in Core Retail Sales (which excludes car sales), which remained stuck at 0.2%, compared to a forecast of 0.5%. Still, analysts are confident that an optimistic consumer will translate into strong spending numbers in the next few months. There was good news on the inflation front, as wholesale prices (measured by PPI) rose 0.3%, beating the forecast of 0.1%. This marked the third rise in four months, as inflation is pointing upwards due to higher oil prices. If inflation continues to climb towards the Federal Reserve target of 2.0%, we could see the Fed step in and raise interest rates. On Thursday, FOMC member Patrick Harker took note of the strong US economy and projected three “modest” rates from the Fed in 2017. We’ll get another look at key inflation numbers on Wednesday, with the release of CPI and Core CPI.
Monday (January 16)
- There are no US events scheduled on Monday
XAU/USD for Monday, January 16, 2017
XAU/USD January 16 at 13:05 EST
Open: 1203.45 High: 1208.72 Low: 1200.21 Close: 1202.76
- XAU/USD posted slight gains in the Asian and European sessions. The pair is steady in North American trade
- 1199 is fluid. Currently, its is providing weak support
- 1232 is the next resistance line
- Current range: 1199 to 1232
Further levels in both directions:
- Below: 1199, 1174, 1146 and 1130
- Above: 1232, 1260 and 1285
OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio
In the Monday session, XAU/USD ratio is showing long positions with a strong majority (72%), indicative of trader bias towards XAU/USD breaking out and climbing to higher levels.
This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.