WTI/USD – US Crude Hugs $45 as Markets Eye US Election Results

US crude is showing slight movement in the Tuesday session. In North American trade, WTI/USD is trading at $44.96 per barrel. Brent futures are trading at $46.13, as the Brent premium stands at $1.18. On the release front, US JOLTS Job Openings improved to 5.49 million, but this figure was well off the forecast of 5.67 million. It is Election Day in the US, as the markets anxiously wait to see who will become the next president of the United States. On Wednesday, the US will release the weekly crude oil inventories. A huge surplus of 14.4 million barrels contributed to US crude’s slide last week, as the commodity plunged 8.8 percent. Another surprise form the indicator could cause trigger some volatility from US crude.

After months of a bitter and bruising election campaign, US voters in their millions will flock to the polls and choose either Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump as their new president. Although polls continue to point to a tight race, Clinton appears to have the upper hand as she has an easier path to garnering the 270 electoral votes needed to claim victory. The most recent polls indicate that voters favor Clinton over Donald Trump by a margin of three to five percent. On the weekend, the Clinton campaign received a boost as the FBI announced that it had no reason to change its conclusion that Clinton should not face criminal charges in her use of private emails while she was secretary of state. There are different market scenarios depending on the actual outcome of the election, with the worst case scenario being a too-close-to-call result. If either candidate fails to deliver a decisive victory, the leadership vacuum and uncertainty surrounding the result could trigger higher volatility in the markets. However, if Clinton wins a clear victory, the US dollar could respond with broad gains. The election could also have a significant effect on monetary rate policy. Currently, the odds of a rate hike in December stands at 71.5 percent. However, if the election results trigger market volatility, the Federal Reserve could hold off from raising interest rates at its next policy meeting in December.

Tuesday (November 8)

  • 6:00 US NFIB Small Business Index. Estimate 94.6. Actual 94.9
  • 10:00 US JOLTS Jobs Openings. Estimate 5.67M. Actual 5.49M
  • All Day – US Presidential Election
  • All Day – Congressional Elections

Wednesday (November 9)

  • 10:30 US Crude Oil Inventories

*All release times are EDT

*Key events are in bold

WTI/USD for Tuesday, November 8, 2016

WTI/USD November 8 at 11:30 EDT

Open: 44.51 High: 45.00 Low: 44.11 Close: 44.96

WTI USD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
28.71 33.22 40.57 46.54 52.22 58.32

WTI/USD has been flat over the course of the Monday session

  • 40.57 is providing support
  • 46.54 is a weak resistance line

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 40.57, 33.22 and 28.71
  • Above: 46.54, 52.22 and 58.32

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.