NZD/USD – New Zealand Dollar Slides Despite Positive GDP

NZD/USD posted sharp losses on Thursday, erasing the gains recorded in the Wednesday session. In economic news, New Zealand GDP posted a gain of 0.7%, above the estimate. Later in the day, New Zealand will release Business NZ Manufacturing Index. Over in the US, consumer inflation was within expectations, as Core CPI and CPI both posted small gains of 0.2%. The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index beat expectations, but Unemployment Claims was higher than expected. On Friday, the US releases Building Permits, a key release.

The New Zealand dollar has dipped back below the 0.70 level, as NZD/USD has dropped about 100 points on Thursday. A solid New Zealand GDP report has not been enough to stem the kiwi’s slide. The economy expanded 0.7% in the first quarter, beating the estimate of 0.5%. However, this was weaker than the third quarter report of 0.9%. The primary driver behind the GDP reading was a strong construction sector. Earlier in the week, New Zealand numbers were a mix. Current Account improved sharply, posting a gain of $NZ 1.31 billion in the first quarter, well above the forecast of $NZ 0.97 billion. This ended a nasty streak of three consecutive declines. However, the GDT Price Index dipped to a flat 0.0%, compared to a strong gain of 3.4% in the previous release.

The Federal Reserve was center stage on Wednesday, but there was no surprises as the Fed opted for the sidelines and held the benchmark rate at 0.25%, where it has been pegged since December 2015. A dismal Nonfarm Payrolls report and dovish statements from Fed chair Janet Yellen and her colleagues had all but decimated any chance of a June hike. Back in April, Fed chair Janet Yellen had renewed hopes of rate hike in the summer, when she said that she expected a rate hike in “the coming months”. The Fed’s tone has drastically changed since then, and there is a strong likelihood that the Fed will raise rates only once in 2016. The Fed statement did not shed any light on the timing of a rate hike, although many analysts are circling September in their calendars. The statement was cautious in tone, stating that the Fed expects US inflation levels to remain at low levels in the near term. As well, the Fed lowered its rate path outlook for 2016 and 2017. Gone are the heady days of December, when the Fed hinted that it could raise rates up to four times in 2016. Many analysts were skeptical about this rosy (brash?) prediction, and it appears that the Fed was overly optimistic about the strength of the US economy, as June has arrived and we are yet to see a rate hike in 2016.

NZD/USD Fundamentals

Wednesday (June 15)

  • 18:45 New Zealand GDP. Estimate 0.5%. Actual 0.7%

Thursday (June 16)

  • 8:30 US CPI. Estimate 0.3%. Actual 0.2%
  • 8:30 US Core CPI. Estimate 0.2%. Actual 0.2%
  • 8:30 US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. Estimate 1.1. Actual 4.7
  • 8:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 267K. Actual 277K
  • 8:30 US Current Account. Estimate -125B. Actual -125B
  • 10:00 US NAHB Housing Market Index. Estimate 59. Actual 60
  • 10:30 US Natural Gas Storage. Estimate 66B. Actual 69B

Upcoming Key Events

Friday (June 17)

  • 8:30 US Building Permits. Estimate 1.15M

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are EDT

NZD/USD for Thursday, June 16, 2016

NZD/USD June 16 at 11:00 EDT

Open: 0.7076 Low: 0.6968 High: 0.7087 Close: 0.6977

NZD/USD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
0.6685 0.6793 0.6897 0.7011 0.7100 0.7231
  • NZD/USD was flat in the Asian session. The pair has posted losses in the European and North American sessions
  • 0.7011 is fluid and is currently a weak resistance line
  • 0.6897 is providing support

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 0.6897, 0.6793 and 0.6685
  • Above: 07011, 0.7100, 0.7231 and 0.7319
  • Current Range: 0.6897 to 0.7011

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

The NZD/USD ratio is showing some movement towards short positions on Thursday. Short positions have a majority (55%), which is indicative of trader bias towards NZD/USD continuing to move to lower ground.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.