AUD/USD – Aussie Dips Under 72, US Reports Disappoint

The Australian dollar has posted slight losses on Monday, as AUD/USD trades slightly under the 0.72 line in the North American session. After a rocky October, the Australian dollar has rebounded, gaining about 150 points in the past two weeks. On the release front, there are no Australian events on the calendar. In the US, Manufacturing PMI and Housing Starts both missed their estimates. Manufacturing PMI dipped to 52.6 points, its lowest level since October 2013. Housing Starts dropped sharply to 5.36 million, compared to 5.55 million a month earlier. The estimate stood at 5.39 million.

The recent Fed policy meeting and subsequent minutes did not confirm a December rate hike, but most analysts feel that the long-awaited move will indeed occur next month. Market expectations have risen to 66% that the Fed will make a move next month, and recent comments by Fed policymakers have hinted that a rate move is a strong possibility. At the past two policy meetings, the vote against a rate hike was 9-1, but that clearly will not be the outcome at the December meeting. With the US economy showing improvement and employment and consumer indicators pointing upwards, the markets appear prepared for a small hike of 0.25% or 0.50%, and there is a growing view that a modest move would not cause turbulence on the global markets. One remaining question mark in the rate move puzzle is that of inflation levels. Recent inflation readings have been weak, and the Fed has repeatedly stated that inflation is a key consideration in any decision to raise rates. The markets will get a look at key inflation indicators shortly before the critical Fed policy meeting on December 16.

AUD/USD Fundamentals

Monday (Nov. 23)

  • 14:45 US Flash Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 54.0 points. Actual 52.6 points
  • 15:00 US Existing Home Sales. Estimate 5.39M. Actual 5.36M

Upcoming Key Events

Tuesday (Nov. 24)

  • 13:30 US Preliminary GDP. Estimate 2.0%
  • 15:00 US CB Consumer Confidence. Estimate 99.3 points

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

AUD/USD for Monday, November 23, 2015

AUD/USD November 23 at 16:30 GMT

AUD/USD 0.7184 H: 0.7228 L: 0.7158

AUD/USD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
0.7000 0.7063 0.7100 0.7213 0.7440 0.7526
  • AUD/USD posted considerable losses in the Asian session. The pair has leveled in the European and North American sessions.
  • The round number of 0.71 is an immediate support level.
  • 0.7213 is a weak resistance line.
  • Current range: 0.7100 to 0.7213

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 0.7100, 0.7063, 0.7000 and 0.6931
  • Above: 0.7213, 0.7440 and 0.7526

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

AUD/USD ratio is showing little movement, with long and short positions close to an even split. This is indicative of a lack of trader bias as to what direction the pair will take next.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.