Oil Steady, Markets Eye US Consumer Inflation

US Crude is showing marginal movement on Tuesday, trading at $41.62 a barrel in the European session. In the US, today’s key events are CPI and Core CPI. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its October policy meeting, and the markets will be keenly interested in the comments of policymakers regarding a rate hike.

The recent terror attacks in Paris, which killed 132 people and injured another 350, sent shock waves around the world and hurt market risk sentiment in the process. Major currencies such as the euro and Japanese yen have fallen in recent days, but oil has not joined the downward parade, and posted gains on Monday. Still, oil prices have dropped steadily in the past two weeks, as weak global demand and high production by oil producers has resulted in a huge oversupply, which has weighed on oil prices.

The markets are keeping a close eye on the Federal Reserve, as speculation has increased that the Fed will begin a series of rate hikes, commencing in December. Fed Chair Janet Yellen has called the December meeting a “live possibility” of a rate hike. With the US economy close to full employment and many economic indicators pointing upwards, one of the last pieces in the puzzle is consumer inflation, which will be released later on Tuesday. The October CPI and Core CPI reports could play a crucial factor in determining whether the Fed makes a move and raises rates next month, and should be treated by traders as market-movers. Strong CPI readings could win over Fed policymakers who are concerned about whether the economy is strong enough to withstand a rate hike, while figures below the forecast would dampen expectations of a rate move before 2016.

WTI/USD Fundamentals

Tuesday (Nov. 17)

  • 13:30 US CPI. Estimate 0.2%
  • 13:30 US Core CPI. Estimate 0.2%
  • 14:15 US Capacity Utilization Rate. Estimate 77.5%
  • 14:15 US Industrial Production. Estimate 0.1%
  • 15:00 US Mortgage Delinquencies
  • 15:00 US NAHB Housing Market Index. Estimate 64 points
  • 21:00 US TIC Long-Term Purchases

Upcoming Key Events

Wednesday (Nov. 18)

  • 13:30 US Building Permits. Estimate 1.15M 
  • 19:00 US FOMC Meeting Minutes

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

 

WTI/USD for Tuesday, November 17, 2015

WTI/USD November 17 at 11:00 GMT

WTI/USD 41.62 H: 42.02 L: 41.43

 

XAU/USD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
35.09 37.75 39.87 42.59 44.30 47.04
  • WTI/USD has shown limited movement in the Asian and European sessions.
  • 39.87 is providing support.
  • 42.59 is a weak line of resistance.

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 39.87, 37.75 and 35.09
  • Above: 42.59, 44.30, 47.04 and 49.06

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.