USD/CAD – Limited Movement as US Retail Sales Slide

The Canadian dollar is steady on Wednesday, as USD/CAD trades in the mid-1.19 range in the North American session. In today’s releases, US retail numbers slumped badly, as Core Retail Sales fell by 1.0%, while Retail Sales dropped 0.9%. There are no Canadian releases on Wednesday.

US retail sales caught the markets off guard, with sharp declines in the December readings. Core Retail Sales came in at -1.0%, while Retail Sales followed suit with a loss of 0.9%. Both key indicators recorded their worst showings since May 2010. Part of the sharp drop can be attributed to lower receipts at gasoline stations, as gas prices have fallen sharply in recent weeks.

The news was rosier on the employment front on Tuesday, as JOLTS Jobs Openings climbed to 4.97 million, easily beating the forecast of 4.86 million. This is the indicator’s highest level since January 2001. The strong employment numbers are a welcome result of the robust economy, as the deepening recovery fuels demand for more workers. The health of the labor market is an important component of any decision to raise interest rates, so upcoming employment releases will be under the market microscope as the Fed mulls when to raise interest rates.

USD/CAD for Wednesday, January 14, 2015

USD/CAD January 14 at 16:15 GMT

USD/CAD 1.1940 H: 1.1994 L: 1.1931

 

USD/CAD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.1669 1.1723 1.1875 1.1975 1.2096 1.2190

 

  • USD/CAD posted gains in the Asian session, testing resistance at 1.1975. The pair retracted in European trade. USD/CAD is unchanged in North American trade.
  • 1.1975 remains a weak resistance line. It could face pressure during the North American session.
  • 1.1875 is an immediate support level.
  • Current range: 1.1875 to 1.1975

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.1875, 1.1723, 1.1669, 1.1580 and 1.1493
  • Above: 1.1975, 1.2096, 1.2190 and 1.2261

 

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

USD/CAD ratio has posted gains in long positions on Wednesday. This is not consistent with the pair’s movement, as the pair is almost unchanged. The ratio has a majority of long positions, indicative of trader bias towards the pair moving to higher ground.

USD/CAD Fundamentals

  • 13:30 US Core Retail Sales. Estimate +0.1%. Actual -1.0%.
  • 13:30 US Retail Sales. Estimate +0.2%. Actual -0.9%.
  • 13:30 US Import Prices. Estimate -2.7%. Actual -2.5%.
  • 15:00 US Business Inventories. Estimate 0.2%. Actual 0.2%.
  • 15:30 US Crude Oil Inventories. Estimate 1.2M. Actual 5.4%.
  • 18:01 US 30-year Bond Auction.
  • 19:00 US Beige Book.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.