USD/CAD – US Dollar Shrugs Off Sluggish Data

USD/CAD is showing limited movement on Wednesday, as the Canadian dollar was unable to take advantage of weak US economic data. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading in the mid-1.12 range. In the US, it was a hectic day ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday. The news was dismal, as Unemployment Claims, Core Durable Goods Orders and New Home Sales all missed their estimates. There are no Canadian releases on Wednesday.

The US released a host of key data on Wednesday, but the numbers were weak across-the-board. Unemployment Claims jumped to 313 thousand, its highest level since mid-September. Core Durable Goods Orders declined 0.9%, its third decline in four readings. The estimate stood at 0.5%. New Home Sales fell to a 3-month low, dropping to 458 thousand. This was short of the estimate of 471 thousand. Pending Home Sales was no better, declining by 1.1%, well off the estimate of 0.9%. There was better news from UoM Consumer Sentiment, which posted a fourth straight gain, rising to 88.8 points. However, this was short of the estimate of 90.2 points. Despite this unimpressive performance, the US dollar is holding its own against its Canadian counterpart.

On Tuesday, Canadian Core Retail Sales improved to 0.0% in the September release. Although this was shy of the estimate of 0.4%, the indicator snapped a streak of two declines. Canadian Retail Sales was sharp, posting a 0.8% gain. This beat the estimate of 0.6%, and came after two consecutive declines. Retail Sales is the primary gauge of consumer spending, a key engine of economic growth.

USD/CAD for Wednesday, November 26, 2014

USD/CAD November 26 at 15:30 GMT

USD/CAD 1.1235 H: 1.1297 L: 1.1233

 

USD/CAD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.0961 1.1004 1.1124 1.1278 1.1414 1.1493

 

  • USD/CAD was flat in Asian trade. In the European session, the pair tested resistance at 1.1278 but retracted. The pair has lost ground early in the North American session.
  • 1.1124 is providing strong support.
  •  1.1278 is a weak resistance line. 1.1414 is stronger.
  • Current range: 1.1124 to 1.1278

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.1124, 1.1004, 1.0961 and 1.0886
  • Above: 1.1278, 1.1414, 1.1493, 1.1669 and 1.1723

 

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

USD/CAD ratio is pointing to gains in long positions on Wednesday, reversing the direction seen a day earlier. This is not consistent with the movement of the pair, which has posted small losses. The ratio remains close to an event split between long and short positions, indicative of a lack of trader bias as to what direction USD/CAD will take.

USD/CAD Fundamentals

  • 13:30 US Core Durable Goods Orders. Estimate +0.5%. Actual -0.9%
  • 13:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 287K. Actual 313K.
  • 13:30 US Core PCE Price Index. Estimate 0.1%. Actual 0.2%.
  • 13:30 US Durable Goods Orders. Estimate -0.4%. Actual +0.4%.
  • 13:30 US Personal Spending. Estimate 0.4%. Actual 0.2%.
  • 13:30 US Personal Income. Estimate 0.4%. Actual 0.2%.
  • 14:45 US Chicago PMI. Estimate 63.1 points. Actual 60.8 points.
  • 14:55 US Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment. Estimate 90.2 points. Actual 88.8 points.
  • 14:55 US Revised UoM Inflation Expectations. Actual 2.8%.
  • 15:00 US New Home Sales. Estimate 471K. Actual 458K.
  • 15:00 US New Pending Home Sales. Estimate +0.9%. Actual -1.1%.
  • 15:30 US Crude Oil Inventories. Estimate 0.4M. Actual 1.9M.
  • 15:00 US Natural Gas Storage. Estimate -145B.

* Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.