AUD/USD – Limited Movement After RBA Minutes

AUD/USD is showing little movement on Tuesday, as the pair trades in the low-0.87 range. Taking a look at today’s releases, the RBA minutes stated that interest rates will remain at ultra-low levels. In the US, the US Producer Price Index posted a gain of 0.2%, beating expectations.

US inflation numbers have been persistently weak, but the news was good on Tuesday, as PPI beat expectations with a modest gain of 0.2%. This marked a 4-month high and beat the estimate of -0.1%. Core PPI, which excludes the most volatile items counted in PPI, posted a gain of 0.4%, above the forecast of 0.2%. This was the index’s best showing since April. We’ll get a look at consumer inflation data on Thursday.

The RBA minutes were released on Tuesday as the central bank reiterated that interest rates would remain at record low levels. The RBA has maintained rates at 2.50% since July 2013 and has been reluctant to tinker with this level. The RBA took another swipe at the Aussie, saying the currency remains overvalued. Although the Australian dollar is trading well below the 0.90 level, the RBA would like to see the currency at lower levels in order to facilitate economic growth and boost the ailing export sector.

Australian data started the week off on a disappointing note, as New Motor Vehicle Sales, an important consumer indicator, declined by 1.6%. Last week, Inflation Expectations gained 4.1%. This was the indicator’s best showing since April. Confidence indicators were a mix. Westpac Consumer Sentiment gained 1.9% last month, a second straight gain. This was the indicator’s highest gain since July. NAB Business Confidence dropped to 4 points, as the key indicator has softened for a third straight month.

AUD/USD for Tuesday, November 18, 2014

AUD/USD November 18 at 16:00 GMT

AUD/USD 0.8727 H: 0.8747 L: 0.8682

 

AUD/USD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
0.8456 0.8550 0.8668 0.8763 0.8820 0.8953

 

  • AUD/USD has been uneventful during the day. The pair touched a high of 0.8747, putting pressure on resistance at 0.8763.
  • 0.8763 is a weak resistance line. 0.8820 is stronger.
  • 0.8668 is the next support level. 0.8550 is next.
  • Current range: 0.8668 to 0.8763.

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 0.8668, 0.8550, 0.8456, 0.8315 and 0.8240
  • Above: 0.8763, 0.8820, 0.8953 and 0.9020

 

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

AUD/USD ratio is pointing to gains on Tuesday. This is consistent with what we’re seeing from the pair, as the Australian dollar has posted small gains. The ratio has a majority of long positions, indicative of trader bias towards AUD/USD reversing directions and gaining ground.

 

AUD/USD Fundamentals

  • 00:30 RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes.
  • 8:25 RBA Governor Glenn Stevens Speaks.
  • 13:30 US PPI. Estimate -0.1%. Actual +0.2%.
  • 13:30 US Core PPI. Estimate 0.2%. Actual 0.4%.
  • 15:00 US NAHB Housing Market Index. Estimate 55 points.
  • 18:30 US FOMC Member Narayana Kocherlakota Speaks.
  • 21:00 US TIC Long-Term Purchases. Estimate 41.3B.

* Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.