USD/CAD – Steady Ahead of Canadian Manufacturing Sales

USD/CAD is calm on Friday, as the pair trades in the mid-1.13 range. On the release front, Canada will release Manufacturing Sales, a key event. In the US, it’s a busy day with three major events – Core Retail Sales, Retail Sales and UoM Consumer Sentiment. With key releases on both sides of the border, traders should be prepared for some volatility from USD/CAD during the North American session.

Canadian inflation levels remain low, which continues to weigh on the economy. On Thursday, the New Housing Price Index posted a weak gain of 0.1%, down from 0.3% a month earlier. The estimate stood at 0.2%. The markets are keeping an eye on Manufacturing Sales, the key event of the week. The markets are expecting a strong turnaround in the upcoming release, with an estimate of 1.3%. If the indicator beats the estimate, we could see the Canadian dollar respond with gains.

US Unemployment Claims has looked solid in recent readings, but the key indicator jumped to 290 thousand, missing the estimate of 282 thousand. This marked a seven-week high for the key indicator. The news wasn’t any better from JOLTS Jobs Openings, which weakened to 4.74M, down from 4.84M a month earlier. The estimate stood at 4.81M. On Friday, we’ll get a look at US retail and consumer confidence numbers, so we could see some stronger movement from USD/CAD.

USD/CAD for Friday, November 14, 2014

USD/CAD November 14 at 10:00 GMT

USD/CAD 1.1361 H: 1.1393 L: 1.1358

 

USD/CAD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.1004 1.1124 1.1278 1.1414 1.1493 1.1669

 

  • USD/CAD edged higher in the Asian session, coming close to the 1.14 line. The pair reversed directions late in the Asian session and the US dollar remains under pressure in European trade.
  • 1.1278 is providing strong support. This line has remained intact since late October.
  • On the upside, 1.1414 is the next resistance line.
  • Current range: 1.1278 to 1.1414

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.1278, 1.1124, 1.1004 and 1.0961
  • Above: 1.1414, 1.1493, 1.1669, 1.1723 and 1.1875

 

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

USD/CAD ratio is pointing to gains in short positions on Friday. This is consistent with the movement of the pair, as the Canadian dollar has posted slight gains. The ratio has a majority of short positions, indicative of trader bias towards the Canadian dollar posting gains.

 

USD/CAD Fundamentals

  • 13:30 Canadian Manufacturing Sales. Estimate 1.3%.
  • 13:30 US Core Retail Sales. Estimate 0.2%.
  • 13:30 US Retail Sales. Estimate 0.2%.
  • 13:30 US Import Prices. Estimate -1.7%.
  • 14:55 US Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment. Estimate 87.3 points.
  • 14:55 US Preliminary UoM Inflation Expectations.
  • 15:00 US Business Inventories. Estimate 0.3%.
  • 15:00 US Mortgage Delinquencies.
  • 15:30 US Natural Gas Storage. Estimate 37B.
  • 21:00 US FOMC Member Stanley Fisher Speaks.

* Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.