USD/CAD is almost unchanged on Friday, as the pair trades in the mid-1.14 range. It’s been a miserable week for the Canadian currency, which has lost about 250 points since last Friday. We’re likely to see the pair show some movement later in the day, as Canada releases Employment Change and the Unemployment Rate. At the same time, the US will release Nonfarm Employment Change and the Unemployment Rate. Later in the day, Fed Chair Janet Yellen will speak at an event in Paris, France.
Canadian key numbers were a mix on Thursday. Building Permits climbed 12.7%, crushing the estimate of 5.2%. The indicator bounced back from a dismal reading of -27.3% last month. This positive reading was tempered by the Ivey PMI report, which tumbled to 51.2 points, down from 58.6 a month earlier. The markets had expected a much stronger figure of 59.2 points.
With the US recovery continuing to deepen, employment numbers continue to improve. This trend was underscored on Thursday, as Unemployment Claims fell to 278 thousand. This was better than the estimate of 285 thousand and marked a three-week low. This strong figure comes on the heels of the ADP Nonfarm Payrolls report, which climbed to 230 thousand, its strongest showing in 2014. The week wraps up with the official Nonfarm Payrolls release on Friday. The markets are expecting a downturn, with the estimate standing at 229 thousand. Will the key indicator surprise the markets and beat the forecast? If so, we could see some volatility in the currency markets.
USD/CAD for Friday, November 7, 2014
USD/CAD November 7 at 10:35 GMT
USD/CAD 1.1429 H: 1.1446 L: 1.1421
- USD/CAD has been uneventful in the Asian and European sessions, as the pair remains rangebound.
- 1.1414 remains a weak support line. 1.1278 is stronger.
- On the upside, 1.1493 is an immediate resistance line.
- Current range: 1.1414 to 1.1493
Further levels in both directions:
- Below: 1.1414, 1.1278, 1.1124, 1.1004 and 1.0961
- Above: 1.1493, 1.1669, 1.1723 and 1.1875
OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio
USD/CAD ratio is pointing to gains in short positions on Friday, reversing the direction seen a day earlier. This is not consistent with the pair’s movement, as USD/CAD is almost unchanged on the day. The ratio has a majority of short positions, indicating trader bias towards the Canadian dollar breaking out of range and moving to higher ground.
- 00:05 US FOMC Member Loretta Mester Speaks.
- 13:30 Canadian Employment Change. Estimate -3.9K.
- 13:30 Canadian Unemployment Rate. Estimate 6.8%.
- 13:30 US Nonfarm Employment Change. Estimate 235K.
- 13:30 US Unemployment Rate. Estimate 5.9%.
- 13:30 US Average Hourly Earnings. Estimate 0.2%.
- 15:15 US Fed Chair Janet Yellen Speaks.
- 19:00 US Consumer Credit. Estimate 16.6B.
- 19:30 US FOMC Member Daniel Tarullo Speaks.
* Key releases are in highlighted bold.
*All release times are GMT