USD/CAD – Limited Movement in Subdued Trade

The Canadian dollar is steady on Tuesday. Early in the North American session, USD/CAD is trading in the low-1.12 range. Both Canadian and US markets were closed on Monday, and there was only one event on Tuesday, as NFIB Small Business Index missed the estimate.

On Friday, Canadian job figures were unexpectedly strong. Employment Change posted an outstanding gain of 74.1 thousand, crushing the estimate of 18.7 thousand. This was the strongest gain we’ve seen since May 2013. The unemployment rate dipped to 6.8%, its lowest level in almost six years. Despite the strong numbers, the Canadian dollar was unable to post gains against its US counterpart and continues to trade at high levels.

In the US, last week’s FOMC minutes were unexpectedly dovish. In the minutes, the Fed poured some cold water on rising expectations of a rate hike, as a number of policymakers said that the Federal Reserve should take a more data-dependent approach regarding a rate hike. The Fed also voiced concern about the rising strength of the US dollar which could weigh on the recovery. On the weekend, FOMC member Stanley Fischer said that the Fed could slow tightening if global growth is weaker than expected.

US Unemployment Claims were unchanged last week, coming in at 287 thousand. This beat the estimate of 291 thousand. The indicator has now exceeded the forecast for four straight readings. Earlier in the week, JOLTS Job Openings climbed to 4.84 million, up from 4.67 million a month earlier. These numbers followed an excellent Nonfarm Payrolls report, as the US labor market continues to improve. With QE slated to end later this month, the focus will shift to the timetable for an interest rake hike.

USD/CAD for Tuesday, October 14, 2014

USD/CAD October 14 at 14:25 GMT

USD/CAD 1.1231  H: 1.1258 L: 1.1193

 

USD/CAD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.0961 1.1004 1.1124 1.1278 1.1414 1.1493

 

  • USD/CAD moved higher in the Asian session and this trend continued during most of the European session. The pair is stable in North American trade.
  • 1.1124 is providing strong support.
  • 1.1278 is a weak resistance line. 1.1414 is stronger.
  • Current range: 1.1124 to 1.1278

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.1124, 1.1004, 1.0961, 1.0852 and 1.0775
  • Above: 1.1278, 1.1414, 1.1493 and 1.1669

 

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

USD/CAD ratio has a majority of short positions, indicating trader bias towards the Canadian dollar continuing to lose ground.

 

USD/CAD Fundamentals

  • 11:30 US NFIB Small Business Index. Estimate 97.2 points. Actual 95.3 points.

* Key releases are in highlighted bold.

*All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.