USD/CAD – Canadian Dollar Remains Above 1.11, US Pending Home Sales Slips

After strong gains last week, USD/CAD has taken a breather on Monday, as the pair trades in the mid-1.11 range in the European session. On the release front, US Pending Home Sales posted a decline of 1.0%, compared to last month’s gain of 3.3%. There are no Canadian releases on Monday.

The Canadian dollar has been no match for the US dollar, losing about 200 points last week. Will the loonie’s downward trend continue? On Tuesday, Canada releases GDP, a critical event which traders should treat as a market-mover. Canadian GDP is released monthly, unlike most other developed countries which post GDP on a quarterly basis. The indicator dipped to 0.3% in July, compared to 0.4% a month earlier. Another slight drop is expected, as the August estimate stands at 0.2%. If the indicator falls short of the forecast, we could see the loonie lose more ground.

Last week, US, Core Durable Goods Orders posted a strong gain of +0.7%, bouncing back from the previous reading of -0.8%. Durable Goods Orders continues to take its riders on a roller coaster ride, plunging 18.2% in August, compared to a huge gain of 22.6% a month earlier. Unemployment Claims rose to 293 thousand, within expectations.

 

USD/CAD for Monday, September 29, 2014

USD/CAD September 29 at 13:45 GMT

USD/CAD 1.1165 H: 1.1178 L: 1.1138

 

USD/CAD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.0961 1.1004 1.1124 1.1278 1.1414 1.1493

 

  • USD/CAD has shown almost no change in the Asian and European sessions, as the pair trades in the mid-1.11 range.
  • 1.1124 is providing weak support. 1.1004 is stronger.
  • 1.1278 is a strong resistance line. It has remained intact since March.
  • Current range: 1.1124 to 1.1278

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.1124, 1.1004, 1.0961, 1.0852 and 1.0775
  • Above: 1.1278, 1.1414, 1.1493 and 1.1669

 

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

USD/CAD ratio has a majority of short positions, indicating trader bias towards the Canadian dollar moving to higher ground.

 

USD/CAD Fundamentals

  • 12:30 US Core PCE Price Index. Estimate 0.0%. Actual 0.1%.
  • 12:30 US Personal Spending. Estimate 0.5%. Actual 0.5%.
  • 12:30 US Personal Income. Estimate 0.3%. Actual 0.3%.
  • 14:00 US Pending Home Sales. Estimate -0.4%. Actual -1.0%.

* Key releases are in highlighted bold.

*All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.