AUD/USD – US Dollar Gains on Super GDP

AUD/USD has posted strong losses on Wednesday as the pair trades in the low-0.93 range in the North American session. On the release front, the US Advance GDP was excellent, jumping 4.0% in Q2. Elsewhere in the US, ADP Nonfarm Payrolls softened in June, and the Federal Reserve will release a policy statement later in the day. There are no Australian releases on Wednesday, but we’ll get a look at Australian Building Approvals early on Thursday.

In the US, Advance GDP soared in Q2, posting a gain of 4.0%. This easily beat the estimate of 3.1%. The boost in economic activity was boosted by strong consumer confidence and business activity in Q2. Meanwhile, ADP Nonfarm Payrolls was unable to keep pace. The key employment indicator dropped to 218 thousand, compared to 284 thousand a month earlier. This was well off the estimate of 234 thousand. If the official Nonfarm Payrolls follows suit with a weak reading, the US dollar could give up its recent gains.

If CB Consumer Confidence is any indication, the US consumer is brimming with optimism about the economy. The key indicator jumped to 90.9 points, crushing the estimate of 85.5 points. This was the indicator’s highest level since September 2007. Consumer confidence is closely tracked by analysts since a confident consumer is likely to increase consumption, which is critical for economic growth.

 

AUD/USD for Wednesday, July 30, 2014

AUD/USD July 30 at 15:45 GMT

AUD/USD 0.9318 H: 0.9488 L: 0.9310

 

AUD/USD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
0.9020 0.9119 0.9229 0.9361 0.9446 0.9617

 

  • AUD/USD was flat in the Asian session. The pair has moved lower in the European and North American sessions.
  • 0.9229 is providing strong support.
  • 0.9361 is an immediate resistance line.
  • Current range: 0.9229 to 0.9361

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 0.9229, 0.9119 and 0.9020
  • Above: 0.9361, 0.9446, 0.9617 and 0.9757

 

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

AUD/USD ratio is pointing to gains in short positions on Wednesday. This is consistent with the movement of the pair, as the Australian dollar has posted losses. The ratio has a majority of short positions, indicative of trader bias towards the Australian dollar losing ground.

 

AUD/USD Fundamentals

  • 12:15 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change. Estimate 234K. Actual 218K.
  • 12:30 US Advance GDP. Estimate 3.1%. Actual 4.0%.
  • 12:30 US Advance GDP Price Index. Estimate 1.8%. Actual 2.0%.
  • 14:30 US Crude Oil Inventories. Estimate -0.5M. Actual -3.7M.
  • 18:00 US FOMC Policy Statement.
  • 18:00 US Federal Funds Rate. <0.25%.

* Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.