EUR/USD: Markets Cautious Ahead of FOMC Minutes

EUR/USD is showing little movement on Wednesday, as the pair trades slightly above the 1.36 line. In the US, today’s highlight is the release of the FOMC minutes. In the Eurozone, the sole event is a speech by ECB head Mario Draghi at an event in London.

The Federal Reserve returns to the spotlight on Wednesday, as the FOMC releases the minutes of its June policy meeting. The markets would love some clarity as to when the Fed is looking to raise interest rates. Any hints in this regard could send the currency markets scrambling. Based on updated Fed forecasts for inflation and unemployment, it’s safe to say that the Fed is cautiously optimistic about the pace of the US recovery.

The week started with some positive news out of Germany, after a rash of weak data from the Eurozone’s largest economy. Trade Balance improved last month, posting a surplus of EUR 18 billion, the highest reading since last October. This easily surpassed the estimate of EUR 15.7 billion. German retail sales, employment and manufacturing data softened in May, raising concerns that a weakening German economy could dash hopes of growth in the Eurozone and hurt the euro.

 

EUR/USD for Wednesday, July 9, 2014

EUR/USD July 9 at 10:40 GMT

EUR/USD 1.3614 H: 1.3631 L: 1.3609

 

EUR/USD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.3346 1.3487 1.3585 1.3651 1.3786 1.3893

 

  • EUR/USD has shown little activity in the Asian and European sessions.
  • On the downside, the pair is testing support at 1.3585. Will this line fall? 1.3487 is stronger.
  • 1.3651 is the next line of resistance. 1.3786 is next.
  • Current range: 1.3585 to 1.3651

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.3585, 1.3487, 1.3346 and 1.3295
  • Above: 1.3651, 1.3786, 1.3893 and 1.40

 

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

EUR/USD ratio is pointing to gains in short positions on Wednesday, continuing the trend seen a day earlier. This is consistent with the movement of the pair, as the euro has posted slight losses. The ratio has a majority of short positions, indicative of trader bias towards the dollar posting gains against the euro.

 

EUR/USD Fundamentals

  • 14:30 US Crude Oil Inventories. Estimate -1.7M.
  • 17:01 US 10-year Bond Auction.
  • 18:00 US FOMC Meeting Minutes.
  • 18:30 ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.