USD/CAD: Little Movement as Canadian Manufacturing Inflation Slips

USD/CAD is steady on Friday, as the pair trades just below the 1.07 line. The Canadian dollar continues to make steady progress against its US counterpart, and the pair dipped into 1.06 territory on Thursday for the first time since January. In economic news, Canadian manufacturing inflation indicators softened in May. Over in the US, today’s highlight is Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, with the markets expecting another strong reading.

Canada’s manufacturing sector showed a drop in inflation in May, indicative of decreased activity in this important industry. The Raw Materials Price Index has been dropping, and the downward trend continued in May, as the index came in at -0.4%, way off the estimate of +1.3%. The Industrial Product Price Index followed suit with a reading of -0.5%, compared to the estimate of +0.4%. These are the first Canadian releases of the week, and the loonie has posted gains this week against the US dollar thanks to some weak US numbers, notably the Q1 GDP.

In the US, Unemployment Claims showed little movement on Thursday, continuing the trend which has characterized the key indicator throughout the month of June. The key indicator came in at 312 thousand, slightly better than the estimate of 314 thousand. Earlier in the week, GDP shocked the markets with a five-year low and durables softened as well. GDP dropped by 2.9%, much worse than the 1.8% loss expected by the markets. Core Durable Goods Orders declined by 0.1%, its first decline in five months. The estimate stood at 0.3%. Durable Goods Orders looked even worse, coming in at -1.0%, shy of the estimate of -0.1%.

 

USD/CAD for Friday, June 27, 2014

USD/CAD June 27 at 12:30 GMT

USD/CAD 1.0694 H: 1.0696 L: 1.0678

 

USD/CAD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.0414 1.0572 1.0678 1.0706 1.0775 1.0852

 

  • 1.0775 is the next resistance line. 1.0852 is stronger.
  • 1.0706 remains an immediate support level. Will the pair break below this barrier? This is followed by 1.0678, which was last tested in early January.
  • Current range: 1.0706 to 1.0775

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.0706, 1.0678, 1.0572 and 1.0414
  • Above: 1.0706, 1.0775, 1.0852 and 1.0906

 

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

USD/CAD ratio is almost unchanged in Friday trade, continuing the trend which has marked the ratio for most of the week. This is consistent with the lack of movement from the pair. The ratio has a majority of long positions, indicative of trader bias towards the US dollar breaking out and moving higher.

 

USD/CAD Fundamentals

  • 12:30 Canadian Raw Materials Price Index. Estimate +1.3%. Actual -0.4%.
  •  12:30 Canadian Industrial Product Price Index. Estimate +0.4%. Actual -0.5%.
  • 13:55 US Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment. Estimate 82.2 points.
  • 13:55 US Revised UoM Inflation Expectations.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.