AUD/USD: Steady as US Unemployment Claims Meet Expectations

The Australian dollar has edged higher on Thursday, as the pair trades slightly above the 0.94 line. On the release front, US Unemployment Claims showed little change. There are no Australian releases for the remainder of the week.

US indicators pointed downwards on Wednesday, led by a dismal Final GDP reading in Q1. The markets were braced for a decline of 1.8%, but the key indicator shocked with a much sharper drop of 2.9%. There was more bad news to follow, as Core Durable Goods Orders declined by 0.1%, its first decline in five months. The estimate stood at 0.3%. Durable Goods Orders looked even worse, coming in at -1.0%, shy of the estimate of -0.1%.  Despite the awful GDP, the currency markets remain calm and the dollar has held its own against the Aussie.

With no economic data coming out of Australia for the entire week, this week’s Chinese and US releases have generated much of the movement of AUD/USD. The Australian dollar is sensitive to key Chinese data, as China is Australia’s number one trading partner. On Monday, Chinese Flash Manufacturing PMI moved above the 50-point level for the first time since November, pointing to expansion in the manufacturing sector. The strong reading helped the Aussie move above the 0.94 line, as the currency continues to trade at high levels against its US counterpart.

 

AUD/USD for Thursday, June 26, 2014

AUD/USD June 26 at 13:45 GMT

AUD/USD 0.9415 H: 0.9418 L: 0.9396

 

AUD/USD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
0.9119 0.9229 0.9361 0.9446 0.9617 0.9757

 

  • AUD/USD had a quiet Asian session and has edged upwards in European trading.
  • 0.9361 continues to provide support. There is stronger support at 0.9229, which has held firm since early June.
  • 0.9446 is an immediate resistance line. 0.9617 is stronger.

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 0.9361, 0.9229, 0.9119 and 0.9000
  • Above: 0.9446, 0.9617, 0.9757 and 0.9847

 

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

AUD/USD ratio is pointing to gains in short positions on Thursday, reversing the trend we saw a day earlier. This is not consistent with the movement of the pair, as the Australian dollar has edged higher. The ratio is almost evenly split between short and long positions, pointing to a lack of trader bias as which direction the pair will take.

 

AUD/USD Fundamentals

  • 12:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 314K. Actual 312K.
  • 12:30 US Core PCE Price Index. Estimate 0.2%. Actual 0.2%.
  • 12:30 US Personal Spending. Estimate 0.4%. Actual 0.2%.
  • 12:30 US Personal Income. Estimate 0.5%. Actual 0.4%.
  • 14:30 US Natural Gas Storage. Estimate 101B.
  • 14:30 US Crude Oil Inventories. Estimate -1.2M.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.