AUD/USD – Range Trading Continues

AUD/USD is showing little movement on Tuesday, as the pair continues to trade in the mid-0.90 range in the European session. In economic news, NAB Business Confidence weakened in February. Later in the day, we’ll get a look at Westpac Consumer Sentiment. In the US, today’s highlight is JOLTS Job Openings. The markets are not expecting much change in the February release.

Key Australian releases looked sharp last week, and the Aussie responded with strong gains against the US dollar. Retail Sales looked sharp in February, with a strong gain of 1.2%. This easily beat the estimate of 0.5%, and was the indicator’s strongest gain since last March. Retail Sales is the primary gauge of consumer spending, so a strong reading from the indicator points is an important sign of economic growth. Trade Balance also looked sharp, posting a surplus of $1.43 billion, crushing the estimate of $0.13 billion. The indicator has been marked by monthly deficits, so a sharp increase in the trade surplus is certainly good news for the economy and the Australian dollar. As well, GDP rose in Q4 and Building Permits also impressed.

US Nonfarm Payrolls was a pleasant surprise, as the key employment release jumped to 175 thousand in February, up from 113 thousand a month earlier. This was well above the estimate of 151 thousand. The Unemployment rate edged up to 6.7%, slightly above the estimate of 6.6%. With a solid Unemployment Claims earlier last week, the markets can breathe more comfortably as the Fed is likely to pick up its scissors and trim QE next week for the third time. New York Fed President William Dudley stated last week that the threshold to alter the Fed’s program to wind up QE was “pretty high”. In other words, short of a serious economic downturn in the US economy, we can expect the QE tapers to continue.

 

AUD/USD for Tuesday, March 11, 2014

Forex Rate Graph 21/1/13

AUD/USD March 11 at 15:15 GMT

AUD/USD 0.9035 H: 0.9050 L: 0.9011

 

AUD/USD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
0.8735 0.8893 0.9000 0.9119 0.9229 0.9361

 

  • AUD/USD continues to show little movement in Tuesday trading.
  • On the upside, 0.9119 is providing resistance. This is followed by 0.9229.
  • 0.9000, a key line, is providing support. This is not a strong line and could be face pressure. There is stronger support at 0.8893.
  • Current range: 0.9000 to 0.9119

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 0.9000, 0.8893, 0.8735 and 0.8658
  • Above: 0.9119, 0.9229, 0.9361, 0.9466 and 0.9595

 

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

AUD/USD ratio is pointing to gains in long positions on Tuesday. This is consistent with what we are seeing from the pair, as the Aussie has posted slight gains. AUD/USD ratio is made up of a majority of long positions, reflecting a trader bias towards the Australian dollar moving higher against the US currency.

The Australian dollar is trading quietly, with little movement in the European session.

 

AUD/USD Fundamentals

  • 00:30 Australian NAB Business Confidence. Actual 7 points.
  • 11:30 US NFIB Small Business Index. Estimate 95.3 points. Actual 91.4 points.
  • 14:00 US JOLTS Jobs Openings. Estimate 4.02M.
  • 14:00 US Wholesale Inventories. Estimate 0.5%.
  • 23:30 Australian Westpac Consumer Sentiment.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.