EUR/USD – Euro Steady In Cautious Trading

EUR/USD is steady on Tuesday, as the pair trades in the mid-1.37 range in the European session. On Monday, US Manufacturing PMI improved in February and beat the estimate. It’s a light day on Tuesday, with just three releases on the schedule. Spanish Unemployment Change posted a small decline in February, surprising the markets which had anticipated a sharp gain.

If there was an academy award for the most unpredictable economic release in the Eurozone, Spanish Unemployment Change would have to be considered one of the favorites to win. The indicator has fluctuated wildly in recent readings, posting huge moves and leaving markets estimates in tatters. In the February release, the indicator posted a small loss of -1.9 thousand, shocking the markets which had braced for a gain of 74.2 thousand. Spanish indicators have looked solid so far in 2014, and on Monday, Manufacturing PMI posted a respectable reading of 52.5 points, pointing to slight expansion.

After a less than stellar week, US releases started the new trading week on a positive note. ISM Manufacturing PMI improved to 53.2 points in January, beating the estimate of 52.3. On Friday, Pending Home Sales posted a paltry gain of 0.1%, well below the estimate of a 2.9% gain. However, the reading was a strong improvement over the January reading of -8.7%. Earlier in the week, Unemployment Claims came in above the estimate and GDP also missed the forecast. Although market sentiment remains positive about the US economy, recent key releases have not impressed, and the dollar will find itself under pressure this week if US numbers don’t show improvement.

German numbers looked sharp last week. On Friday, Retail Sales jumped 2.5%, crushing the estimate of 1.2%. German GfK Consumer Climate continues to rise, as the key indicator moved upwards for a fourth straight month. Earlier in the week, German Ifo Business Climate and Unemployment Change declined by 14 thousand, its third straight decline. With the ECB under pressure to take action and boost the sputtering Eurozone economy, good news from Germany, the largest economy in the bloc, is especially welcome. Germany is certainly doing well, but others are lagging behind, notably Italy and France.

 

EUR/USD for Tuesday, March 4, 2014

Forex Rate Graph 21/1/13

EUR/USD March 4 at 11:10 GMT

EUR/USD 1.3764 H: 1.3774 L: 1.3724

 

EUR/USD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.3410 1.3585 1.3649 1.3786 1.3893 1.4000

 

  • EUR/USD is steady in Tuesday trading. The pair touched a high of 1.3774 early in the European session.
  • On the downside, 1.3649 has some breathing room after strong gains by the euro late last week. The next support line is at 1.3585.
  • 1.3786 is the first line of resistance. It is a weak line and could be tested during the day. This is followed by resistance at 1.3893, which is protecting the 1.39 level.
  • Current range: 1.3649 to 1.3786

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.3649, 1.3585, 1.3410, 1.3347 and 1.3255
  • Above: 1.3786, 1.3893, 1.4000 and 1.4149.

 

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

EUR/USD ratio has reversed directions in Tuesday trade, pointing to gains in long positions. This is consistent with the pair’s current movement, as the euro has edged higher against the dollar. Short positions retain a strong majority, indicative of trader bias towards the dollar moving higher.

The euro is steady in Tuesday trading. EUR/USD has edged higher in the European session.

 

EUR/USD Fundamentals

  • 8:00 Spanish Unemployment Change. Exp. 74.2K. Actual -1.9K.
  • 10:00 Eurozone PPI. Exp. 0.0%, actual -0.3%.
  • 15:00 US IBP/TIPP Economic Optimism. Exp. 45.6 points.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

 

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.