USD/CAD – Rangebound In Holiday Trade

USD/CAD is showing almost no change in Monday trading, as the pair trades in the mid-1.09 range early in the North American session. On Friday, US Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment improved in January. There is no action on the release front on Monday, as the US markets are closed for a holiday and there are no Canadian releases either.

The markets did not have much to cheer about on Thursday as all three US key releases disappointed. Unemployment Claims rose to 337 thousand, above the estimate of 331 thousand. This reading comes on the heels of JOLTS Job Openings earlier in the week, which also missed market expectations. Core Retail Sales dropped to 0.0%, a nine-month low. The estimate stood at 0.1%. Retail Sales brought no relief, slipping to -0.4%, short of the estimate of 0.0%.

Canadian inflation indicators continue to sputter, as New Housing Price Index posted a weak gain of 0.1% last week. Earlier in the week, Canadian Housing Starts dropped to 180 thousand, its lowest gain since August, and fell short of the estimate. This release follows a sharp decline in Building Permits last week, pointing to trouble in the housing and construction sectors. Meanwhile, the annual federal budget didn’t contain any dramatic news, with the government taking a cautious approach to spending and taxation. Canada is expected to post a budget surplus in 2015, after a long stretch of annual deficits.

Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen didn’t generate much excitement in the markets when she testified before Congress last week. She said that the Fed plans to continue trimming QE, provided that the employment picture continues to improve and inflation rises. She acknowledged that even though the unemployment rate has improved steadily, the recovery in the labor market is far from complete and the Fed plans to keep interest rates at ultra-low levels. Yellen, who took over as Fed chair on February 1, is expected to continue the policies of her predecessor, Bernard Bernanke.

 

USD/CAD for Monday, February 17, 2014

Forex Rate Graph 21/1/13

USD/CAD February 17 at 15:30 GMT

USD/CAD 1.0967 H: 1.0983 L: 1.0953

 

USD/CAD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.0783 1.0852 1.0906 1.1000 1.1094 1.1177

 

  • USD/CAD is rangebound in Monday trading.
  • 1.0906 is providing support. This is followed by a support line at 1.0852, which has held firm since mid-January.
  • On the upside, the round number of 1.10 is the next line of resistance. There is stronger resistance at 1.1094.
  • Current range: 1.0906 to 1.1000

 

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.0906, 1.0852, 1.0783 and 1.0706
  • Above: 1.1000, 1.1094, 1.1177, 1.1319 and 1.1496

 

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

USD/CAD ratio is almost unchanged in Monday trading. This is consistent with what we are seeing from the pair, which is listless as we start off the week. The ratio has a narrow majority of short positions, indicating a slight trader bias towards the Canadian dollar breaking out and posting gains.

USD/CAD has  shown little movement on Monday. With US markets closed and no Canadian releases on the schedule, traders can expect a quiet North American session for USD/CAD.

 

USD/CAD Fundamentals

  • There are no US or Canadian releases on Monday.

 

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.