USD/CAD – Little Movement As Markets Eye Canadian Budget

The Canadian dollar is steady on Monday, as USD/CAD trades in the mid-1.10 range early in the North American session. In economic releases, Canadian Housing Starts dropped for the third straight month and was short of the estimate. Later in the day, BOC Deputy Governor John Murray will address an event in Sudbury, Ontario. On Friday, US Nonfarm Employment Change looked weak but the Unemployment Rate dipped lower. North of the border, Canadian Employment Change hit a five-month high and the Unemployment Rate nudged lower.

Canadian Housing Starts continues to weaken. The indicator dropped to 180 thousand, its  lowest gain since August, and fell short of the estimate. This release follows a sharp decline in Building Permits last week, pointing to trouble in the housing and construction sectors. The federal government will hand down a budget on Tuesday, and this could be a market-mover, especially if there are parts of the budget that the markets would rather not hear. There was some good news on Friday, as Employment Change posted a gain of 29.4 thousand in January, after a shocking decline of 45.9 thousand a month earlier. The indicator easily beat the estimate of 19.7 thousand.

Over in the US, the markets were treated to another dismal Nonfarm Payrolls release. The key employment indicator improved to 113 thousand, but this was well of the estimate of 185 thousand. The loonie did post some gains on Friday, but the markets continue to maintain a high regard the markets have for the strength of the US economy. There was some good news as well on the US employment front, as the Unemployment Rate dipped to 6.6%, its lowest level in over five years.

 

USD/CAD for Monday, February 10, 2014

Forex Rate Graph 21/1/13

USD/CAD February 10 at 14:35 GMT

USD/CAD 1.1050 H: 1.1055 L: 1.1019

 

USD/CAD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.0852 1.0906 1.1000 1.1094 1.1177 1.1319

 

  • USD/CAD is showing little activity in Monday trading, as the pair trades in the mid-1.10 range.
  • The key level of 1.100 is providing support. This is followed by a support line at the key level of 1.0906, protecting the 1.09 line.
  • On the upside, 1.1094 is providing resistance. There is stronger resistance at 1.1177.
  • Current range: 1.1000 to 1.1094

 

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.1000, 1.0906, 1.0852 and 1.0783
  • Above: 1.1094, 1.1177, 1.1319, 1.1496 and 1.1610

 

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

USD/CAD ratio is pointing to gains in short positions in Monday trading. This is not consistent with what we are seeing from the pair, as the US dollar has posted slight gains. The ratio continues to be made up of a majority of short positions, indicating a trader bias towards the Canadian dollar moving to higher ground.

USD/CAD has started off the week very quietly and this trend could continue throughout the day, with no US releases on the schedule. Early in the North American session, the pair has edged higher.

 

USD/CAD Fundamentals

  • 13:13 Canadian Housing Starts. Estimate 184K. Actual 180K.
  • 17:50 BOC Deputy Governor John Murray Speaks.

 

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

 

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.