USD/CAD is showing little movement as we begin the new trading week. Early in the North American session, the pair is trading in the high-1.04 range. We can expect thin trading on Monday, as both the US and Canadian markets are closed for holidays. On Friday, US Non-Farm Payrolls surged, pushing the pair higher. However, US Preliminary U0M Consumer Sentiment was a disappointment, slipping to an eight-month low. In Canada, employment data was strong, as Employment Change beat market expectations.
Over in the US, the markets had very low expectations from Non-Farm Payrolls, one of the most important economic indicators. The estimate for the October release stood at just 121 thousand, as there was concern that the reading would be artificially low due to the government shutdown in October. However, the indicator put those concerns to rest, as the indicator soared to 204 thousand, its highest level in eight months. The outstanding NFP figure bolstered the US dollar against the major currencies, and has increased speculation that the Fed might press the tapering trigger in December. Such talk could bolster the US currency, as a reduction in QE is bullish for the dollar. At the same time, speculation about a scaling down in QE introduces some uncertainty and volatility in the currency markets.
Canada wrapped up the week with strong employment data. Employment Change posted a respectable gain of 13.2 thousand, beating the estimate of 12.7 thousand. The Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 6.9%, edging out the estimate of 7.0%. The solid numbers enabled the loonie to hold its own against the US dollar, which showed broad strength following a superb Non-Farm Payroll release on Friday. If the US continues to post good numbers this week, the Canadian dollar will have a hard time making inroads against the strong US dollar.
USD/CAD for Monday, November 11, 2013
USD/CAD November 11 at 15:30 GMT
USD/CAD 1.0466 H: 1.0487 L: 1.0466
- USD/CAD is trading quietly on Monday, as the pair shows limited movement in the high-1.04 range.
- On the upside, the pair faces resistance at 1.0502. Given the recent weakness of the Canadian dollar, this line cannot be considered safe. The next line of resistance is at 1.0573. This line has held firm since early July.
- The line of 1.0442 has reverted to a support role. It is a weak line and could face strong pressure if the Canadian dollar shows improvement. The next line of support is 1.0337.
- Current range: 1.0442 to 1.0502
Further levels in both directions:
- Below: 1.0442, 1.0337, 1.0282, 1.0224 and 1.0158
- Above 1.0502, 1.0573, 1.0652 and 1.0837
OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio
USD/CAD ratio is pointing to gains in short positions in Monday trading. This is not reflected in the current movement of the pair, which is showing very little movement. A majority of the open positions in the USD/CAD ratio are short, indicating a trader bias towards the Canadian dollar moving higher.
The pair has started the week with little movement and we can expect an uneventful North American session, with the US and Canadian markets off for a holiday on Monday.
- There are no US or Canadian releases on Monday.