Poll Sees Fical Cliff to be Avoided

Three out of four global investors expect President Barack Obama and congressional leaders to reach a short-term agreement to avert more than $600 billion in spending cuts and tax increases scheduled to begin on Jan. 1.

Only 6 percent of investors anticipate a political impasse that would send the U.S. economy over the so-called fiscal cliff and into a recession, according to a Bloomberg Global Poll conducted on Nov. 27.

“Both sides understand the importance of striking a deal, increasing taxes and cutting entitlements,” says Richard Salerno, director of fixed income for Kovitz Management Corp. in Chicago, in a follow-up interview. “The market just wants to know the rules going forward so they can move on and begin to lift us out of our fiscal mess.”

The survey of 862 Bloomberg customers who are investors, traders or analysts found that 40 percent expect financial markets to rise after a short-term tax-and-spending deal. An additional 28 percent forecast no significant market reaction while 26 percent say markets would fall, seeing a short-term deal as delaying an unavoidable day of reckoning with the country’s finances.

On Nov. 20, Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, who enjoys a 65 percent approval rating in the Bloomberg poll, warned that failure to reach an agreement before the end of the year “would pose a substantial threat to the recovery.”

Bloomberg

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Get OANDA's exclusive weekly Market Pulse FX

HTML
  • HTML
  • Text
Dean Popplewell

Dean Popplewell

Director of Currency Analysis and Research at MarketPulse
Dean Popplewell has nearly two decades of experience trading currencies and fixed income instruments. He has a deep understanding of market fundamentals and the impact of global events on capital markets. He is respected among professional traders for his skilled analysis and career history as global head of trading for firms such as Scotia Capital and BMO Nesbitt Burns. Since joining OANDA in 2007, Dean has played an instrumental role in driving awareness of the forex market as an emerging asset class for retail investors, as well as providing expert counsel to a number of internal teams on how to best serve clients and industry stakeholders.
Dean Popplewell
Dean Popplewell

Latest posts by Dean Popplewell (see all)