Australia 200 – Falls Sharply to Near Four Month Low

Australia 200 – Thursday 4 June 2015

In the last week or so we have seen the confirmation of a medium term trend reversal as the ASX 200 index has edged up towards the key 5800 level.  It has however run into a wall of resistance at this level and has turned sharply lower back down towards a four month low below 5550.  The 5800 level still looms large and continues to apply downwards pressure on the index, as this has been a significant level for the index throughout this year.

It will be interesting to see whether the index can garner enough support from the short term support level around 5550 which has propped the index up over the last few weeks.  Several weeks ago the Australia 200 index declined sharply from highs around the key 6000 level and whilst it paused a little around 5800 and enjoyed some support, it continued to decline down to a three month low around 5550.

Even if it was able to rally higher and move back through the key 5800 level, the index will rejoin the congestion range between 5800 and 6000 and likely find it difficult to move through there quickly. Accordingly the 6000 level which was spoken about at length for most of this year is now a distant level and is probably some time away from being seen again.

(Daily chart below)


Australia 200 June 4 at 00:05 GMT   5594   H: 5646   L: 5572

Australia 200 Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
5500 5800 6000

During the early hours of the Asian trading session on Thursday, the Australian 200 index will be looking to stop the rot after some heavy falls in recent days.

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 5500.

• Above: 5800 and 6000.

Economic Releases

  • 01:30 AU Retail trade (Apr)
  • 01:30 AU Trade Balance (Apr)
  • 11:00 UK BoE Monetary Policy Committee meeting and rate decision
  • 11:00 UK BoE MPC – APF Total (Jun)
  • 11:00 UK BoE MPC – Base Rate
  • 12:30 US Initial Claims (30/05/2015)
  • 12:30 US Non Farm Productivity (Final) (Q1)
  • 12:30 US Unit Labour Costs (Final) (Q1)
  • 14:00 CA Ivey PMI (May)

* All release times are GMT

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