USD/CAD: Little Movement on Listless Canadian GDP

USD/CAD is showing little movement on Monday, as the pair trades in the high-1.06 range early in the North American session. On the release front, Canadian GDP posted a weak gain of 0.1%, while US Pending Home Sales sizzled with a gain of 6.1% last month. Chicago PMI missed the estimate, dropping to a three-month low.

Canadian GDP continues to look listless. The key indicator, which is released each month, came in at just 0.1%, unchanged from a month earlier. This was shy of the estimate of 0.2%, and points to weak economic activity. The weak GDP comes on the heels of week inflation numbers from Canada’s manufacturing industry. The Raw Materials Price Index has been dropping, and the downward trend continued in May, as the index came in at -0.4%, way off the estimate of +1.3%. The Industrial Product Price Index followed suit with a reading of -0.5%, compared to the estimate of +0.4%.

In the US, the week started out in impressive style, as Pending Home Sales jumped 6.1%, crushing the estimate of 1.4%. This was the strongest gain since May 2013. US Housing numbers were excellent last month, as New Home Sales and Existing Home Sales both beat their estimates. Last week’s dismal Q1 GDP reading has weighed on the US dollar, so the currency could lose ground if the markets aren’t happy with this week’s numbers.


USD/CAD for Monday, June 30, 2014

USD/CAD June 30 at 14:30 GMT

USD/CAD 1.0668 H: 1.0697 L: 1.0663


USD/CAD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.0271 1.0414 1.0572 1.0678 1.0775 1.0852


  • On the upside, 1.0678 is under strong pressure and saw action earlier in the day. 1.0775 is next.
  • 1.0572 is the next support level. This is followed by 1.0414.
  • Current range: 1.0572 to 1.0678

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.0572, 1.0414 and 1.0271
  • Above: 1.0678, 1.0706, 1.0775 and 1.0852


OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

USD/CAD ratio is almost unchanged in Monday trade, continuing the trend which marked the ratio for most of last week. This is consistent with the lack of movement from the pair. The ratio has a majority of long positions, indicative of trader bias towards the US dollar breaking out and moving higher.


USD/CAD Fundamentals

  • 12:30 Canadian GDP. Estimate 0.2%. Actual 0.1%.
  • 13:45 US Chicago PMI. Estimate 63.2 points. Actual 62.6 points.
  • 14:00 US Pending Home Sales. Estimate 1.4%. Actual 6.1%.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Market Analyst at OANDA
A highly experienced financial market analyst with a focus on fundamental and macroeconomic analysis, Kenny Fisher’s daily commentary covers a broad range of markets including forex, equities and commodities. His work has been published in major online financial publications including, Seeking Alpha and FXStreet. Kenny has been a MarketPulse contributor since 2012.