USD/JPY – Japanese yen rallies as risk appetite wanes

The Japanese yen has ticked higher in the Tuesday session. In North American trade, USD/JPY is trading at 112.92, down 0.64% on the day. It’s a quiet day on the release front, with no major indicators in Japan or the United States.

The markets were delighted with the results of a weekend meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the G-20 summit. Trump had threatened to raise tariffs on all Chinese products from 10 percent to 25 percent on December 1, but the Chinese convinced Trump to hold off on the tariffs until March 1, to give more time for the countries to reach a deal. News of the truce between the world’s two largest economies raised risk appetite and equity markets showed sharp gains. However, the optimism proved to be short-lived, as investors are concerned that the 90-day reprieve may not lead to a long-term agreement over tariffs. Tuesday’s flavor of the day has been safe-haven assets, which has sent the yen sharply higher. The U.S. and China the sides remain far apart on a number of issues, and reaching a deal will be difficult. If the talks fail to show progress, the yen could continue to move higher.

Is the Japanese economy in trouble? Japan’s manufacturing sector slowed down in November, raising concerns about the strength of the economy. Manufacturing PMI slipped to 52.2, down from 52.9 in October. The ongoing global trade war is a primary factor in the weak reading, as Japanese companies which export to the U.S. or China have been hurt by higher tariffs. A weaker eurozone economy has led to softer European demand for Japanese exports. Making matters worse, domestic demand remains fragile, as nervous consumers continue to hold tightly onto their purse strings.

Post G-20 binary trading events pretty much as scripted

Commodities Weekly: Commodities rise after G-20 meeting

Sterling rises on get out of jail card

USD/JPY Fundamentals

Tuesday (December 4)

  • 10:00 US FOMC Member Williams Speaks
  • Tentative – IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism. Estimate 57.3

*All release times are EST

*Key events are in bold

USD/JPY for Tuesday, December 4, 2018

USD/JPY December 4 at 9:50 EST

Open: 113.65 High: 113.66 Low: 112.73 Close: 112.92

USD/JPY Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
110.28 111.20 112.30 113.75 114.73 115.50

USD/JPY ticked higher in the Asian session but then retracted. The pair showed little movement in the European session and this trend has continued in the North American session

  • 112.30 is providing support
  • 113.75 was tested earlier in resistance and is a weak line
  • Current range: 112.30 to 113.75

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 112.30, 111.20 and 110.28
  • Above: 113.75, 114.73, 115.50 and 116.55

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Market Analyst at OANDA
A highly experienced financial market analyst with a focus on fundamental and macroeconomic analysis, Kenny Fisher’s daily commentary covers a broad range of markets including forex, equities and commodities. His work has been published in major online financial publications including, Seeking Alpha and FXStreet. Kenny has been a MarketPulse contributor since 2012.