Gold Lower as Trade War Fears Recede

Gold has posted considerable gains in the Tuesday session. In North American trade, the spot price for an ounce of gold is $1344.33, down 0.72% on the day. In economic news, CB Consumer Confidence dropped to 127.7, missing the forecast of 131.2 points. As well, the Richmond Manufacturing Index dropped sharply to 15 points, well off the estimate of 23 points. On Wednesday, the US releases Final GDP and Pending Home Sales.

The tariff dispute between the US and China has shaken up global stock markets and also caused volatility in gold prices. As a safe-haven commodity, gold prices jumped 1.8% last week, buoyed by President Trump’s dramatic announcement that he was imposing stiff tariffs on up to $60 billion in Chinese imports. China vowed to retaliate and slap imports on a range of US products. This move came on the heels of a blanket US tariff on steel imports. Although Trump backtracked and exempted Canada, Mexico and other countries from the steel tariffs, the threat of a global trading war has unnerved investors. This week, however, China was singing a more conciliatory tune, saying it would apply to the World Trade Organization to overturn the tariffs. The US has imposed the tariffs under a national security provision, but China has argued that the move is a trade barrier with the intent of protecting domestic producers. Although the dispute has not been resolved, the Chinese move has eased tensions and restored investor risk appetite, in the hope that both the US and China will climb down from their trees and reach some agreement instead of imposing tariffs on each other. This sentiment has boosted the stock markets while sending gold prices lower.

XAU/USD Fundamentals

 Tuesday (March 27)

  • 9:00 US S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI. Estimate 6.1%. Actual 6.4%
  • 10:00 US CB Consumer Confidence. Estimate 131.2. Actual 127.7
  • 10:00 US Richmond Manufacturing Index. Estimate 23. Actual 15
  • 11:00 US FOMC Raphael Bostic Speaks

 Wednesday (March 28)

  • 8:30 US Final GDP. Estimate 2.7%
  • 8:30 US Final GDP Price Index. Estimate 2.3%
  • 8:30 US Goods Trade Balance. Estimate -74.1B
  • 8:30 US Preliminary Wholesale Inventories. Estimate 0.6%
  • 10:00 US Pending Home Sales. Estimate 2.1%
  • 10:30 US Crude Oil Inventories
  • 12:00 US FOMC Member Raphael Bostic Speaks

*All release times are DST

*Key events are in bold

XAU/USD for Tuesday, March 27, 2018

XAU/USD March 27 at 12:30 EST

Open: 1348.00 High: 1355.95 Low: 1343.55 Close: 1344.33

XAU/USD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1285 1307 1337 1375 1416 1433
  • 1337 is providing support
  • 1375 is the next resistance line
  • Current range: 1337 to 1375

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1337, 1307, 1285 and 1260
  • Above: 1375, 1416 and 1433

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

XAU/USD ratio is unchanged in the Tuesday session. Currently, short positions have a slender majoir(52%). This is indicative of slight trader bias towards XAU/USD reversing directions and moving to lower ground.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Market Analyst at OANDA
A highly experienced financial market analyst with a focus on fundamental and macroeconomic analysis, Kenny Fisher’s daily commentary covers a broad range of markets including forex, equities and commodities. His work has been published in major online financial publications including, Seeking Alpha and FXStreet. Kenny has been a MarketPulse contributor since 2012.