EUR/USD – Euro Edges Up, U.S. Consumer Confidence Next

EUR/USD continues to have a quiet week. Currently, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1887, up 0.24% on the day. In economic news, there are no eurozone events on the schedule. In the U.S, the markets are expecting a strong release from CB Consumer Confidence, with an estimate of 128.2 points. Pending Home Sales is forecast to decline by 0.4%. On Thursday, the US releases unemployment claims, which is expected to drop to 241 thousand.

Recent US housing reports beat expectations, and the markets are hoping for a similar result from Pending Home Sales. Last week, Housing Starts came in at 1.30 million, beating the forecast of 1.25 million. On Tuesday, New Home Sales sparkled, with a gain of 733 thousand. This easily beat the estimate of 654 thousand, and was the highest reading since September 2007.

The week of Christmas is light on fundamentals, with only a handful of economic indicators. On Friday, Germany releases Final CPI, with the markets forecasting a strong gain of 0.5%. If Final CPI meets or exceeds the estimate, the euro should gain some ground against the US dollar. In November, the indicator improved to 0.3%, marking a 4-month high. In the eurozone, annual average inflation also inched higher to 1.5% in November, up from 1.4% in October. This marked a multi-year high. In a nod to stronger economic activity in 2017, the ECB raised its forecasts for growth and inflation for the eurozone from this year through to 2019. Still, inflation remains well below the ECB target of around 2.0%, and ECB policymakers are unlikely to announce an end to their stimulus package until inflation moves closer to the 2.0% target.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

Wednesday (December 27)

  • 10:00 US CB Consumer Confidence. Estimate 128.2
  • 10:00 US Pending Home Sales. Estimate -0.4%

Thursday (December 28)

  • 8:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 241K

*All release times are GMT

*Key events are in bold

EUR/USD for Wednesday, December 27, 2017

EUR/USD for December 27 at 5:55 EDT

Open: 1.1859 High: 1.1891 Low: 1.1855 Close: 1.1887

EUR/USD Technical

S1 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.1657 1.1777 1.1876 1.1961 1.2092 1.2222

EUR/USD has posted small gains in the Asian and European sessions

  • 1.1876 was tested earlier in support. It is a weak line and could see further action in the Wednesday session.
  • 1.1961 is the next resistance line

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.1876, 1.1777, 1.1657 and 1.1574
  • Above: 1.1961, 1.2092 and 1.2221
  • Current range: 1.1876 to 1.1961

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

In the Wednesday session, EUR/USD is unchanged. Currently, short positions have a majority (61%), indicative of EUR/USD reversing directions and moving downwards.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Market Analyst at OANDA
A highly experienced financial market analyst with a focus on fundamental and macroeconomic analysis, Kenny Fisher’s daily commentary covers a broad range of markets including forex, equities and commodities. His work has been published in major online financial publications including, Seeking Alpha and FXStreet. Kenny has been a MarketPulse contributor since 2012.