EUR/USD – Euro Steady as German Manufacturing PMI Within Expectations

EUR/USD has recorded small gains in the Friday session. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.1709, up 0.12% on the day. On the release front, Manufacturing PMIs in Germany and the eurozone were within expectations. In the U.S, the focus will be on job numbers, with the release of nonfarm payrolls and wage growth. Both indicators are expected to climb, with estimates of 189 thousand and 0.2%, respectively.

After a brief hiatus, the markets are again facing the nasty reality of a trade war between the U.S. and its major trading partners. On Thursday, the Trump administration made good on its threats and imposed stiff tariffs on the European Union, Mexico and Canada. The EU and Canada fired back quickly, saying they would retaliate with tariffs on U.S products. The U.S had granted all three trading partners a temporary extension, but cited insufficient progress on trade talks as the reason for the tariffs. There are renewed fears that these moves could trigger a global trade war.

The political drama which engulfed Italy this week may finally be over. The crisis almost resulted in another election after an inconclusive vote in March. President  Sergio Matterella had vetoed the choice of the prime minister-elect for finance minister, stunning the political establishment and sending Italian stocks and bonds tumbling lower. In a dramatic breakthrough, the President has given his approval to a new choice for finance minister. This has paved the way for two euro-sceptic parties, the League North and Five Star Movement, to form a coalition government as soon as Friday.

  Dollar Falls As US Fires First in Trade War

  A tempest in an espresso cup

  Trade War On, but Non-farm Payroll (NFP) up next

EUR/USD Fundamentals

Friday (June 1)

  • 3:15 Spanish Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 53.9. Actual 53.4
  • 3:45 Italian Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 53.0. Actual 52.7
  • 3:50 French Final Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 55.1. Actual 54.4
  • 3:55 German Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 56.8. Actual 56.9
  • 4:00 Eurozone Final Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 55.5. Actual 55.5
  • Day 2 – G7 Meetings
  • 8:30 US Average Hourly Earnings. Estimate 0.2%
  • 8:30 US Nonfarm Employment Change. Estimate 189K
  • 8:30 US Unemployment Rate. Estimate 3.9%
  • 9:45 US Final Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 56.6
  • 10:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 58.3
  • 10:00 US Construction Spending. Estimate 0.8%
  • 10:00 US ISM Manufacturing Prices. Estimate 78.1
  • 10:00 ISM Manufacturing Prices. Estimate 78.1
  • All Day – US Total Vehicle Sales. Estimate 17.0M

*All release times are DST

*Key events are in bold

EUR/USD for Friday, June 1, 2018

EUR/USD for June 1 at 6:55 DST

Open: 1.1694 High: 1.1718 Low: 1.1665 Close: 1.1710

EUR/USD Technical

S1 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.1312 1.1418 1.1613 1.1718 1.1809 1.1915

EUR/USD has posted small losses in the Asian and European sessions

  • 1.1613 is providing support
  • 1.1718 was tested earlier in resistance and is a weak line

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.1613, 1.1448, 1.1312 and 1.1212
  • Above: 1.1718, 1.1809 and 1.1915
  • Current range: 1.1613 to 1.1718

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

EUR/USD ratio continues to have a quiet week. Currently, long positions have a majority (55%), indicative of trader bias towards EUR/USD reversing directions and moving to higher ground.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.