EUR/USD has looked listless all week, and this lack of activity continues on Friday, as the pair trades in the mid-1.24 range in the European session. After a quiet week on the release front, it’s an unusually busy Friday. In the Eurozone, French Preliminary GDP improved to 0.3%, while German Preliminary GDP bounced back with a gain of 0.1%. We’ll get a look at Eurozone CPI and GDP later in the day. Over in the US, there are three major events on the schedule – Core Retail Sales, Retail Sales and UoM Consumer Sentiment.
German and French growth numbers were respectable in Q3. German GDP posted a small gain of 0.1%. Germany posted a decline in Q2, and a second straight decline would have meant that the Eurozone’s largest economy was in a recession. French GDP improved to 0.3%, its best performance since Q4 of 2013. The estimate stood at 0.1%. At the same time, Eurozone inflation indicators remain very weak. German CPI declined by 0.3%, while French CPI posted a flat reading of 0.0%.
US Unemployment Claims has looked solid in recent readings, but the key indicator jumped to 290 thousand, missing the estimate of 282 thousand. This marked a seven-week high for the key indicator. The news wasn’t any better from JOLTS Jobs Openings, which weakened to 4.74M, down from 4.84M a month earlier. The estimate stood at 4.81M. On Friday, we’ll get a look at US retail and consumer confidence numbers, so we could see some movement from EUR/USD.
EUR/USD for Friday, November 14, 2014
EUR/USD November 8:10 GMT
EUR/USD 1.2461 H: 1.2476 L: 1.2427
- EUR/USD lost during the Asian session but recovered late in the session. The pair is showing little movement in European trade.
- On the downside, 1.2407 remains a weak support line. 1.2286 is next. This strong line has remained intact since August 2012.
- 1.2518 is an immediate resistance line.
- Current range: 1.2407 to 1.2518
Further levels in both directions:
- Below: 1.2407, 1.2286, 1.2143, 1.2042 and 1.1875
- Above: 1.2518, 1.2688, 1.2806 and 1.2905
OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio
EUR/USD ratio is pointing to gains in short positions on Friday, reversing the direction seen a day earlier. This is consistent with the pair’s movement, as the euro has posted small losses. The ratio is almost an even split between long and short positions, indicative of a lack of trader bias towards what direction to expect from EUR/USD.
- 6:30 French Preliminary GDP. Estimate 0.1%. Actual 0.3%.
- 7:00 German Preliminary GDP. Estimate 0.1%. Actual 0.1%.
- 7:45 French Preliminary Nonfarm Payrolls. Estimate +0.2%. Actual -0.2%.
- 9:00 Italian Preliminary GDP. Estimate -0.1%.
- 10:00 Eurozone Final CPI. Estimate 0.4%.
- 10:00 Eurozone Flash GDP. Estimate 0.1%.
- 10:00 Eurozone Final Core CPI. Estimate 0.7%.
- 13:30 US Core Retail Sales. Estimate 0.2%.
- 13:30 US Retail Sales. Estimate 0.2%.
- 13:30 US Import Prices. Estimate -1.7%.
- 14:55 US Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment. Estimate 87.3 points.
- 14:55 US Preliminary UoM Inflation Expectations.
- 15:00 US Business Inventories. Estimate 0.3%.
- 15:00 US Mortgage Delinquencies.
- 15:30 US Natural Gas Storage. Estimate 37B.
- 21:00 US FOMC Member Stanley Fisher Speaks.
*Key releases are highlighted in bold.
*All release times are GMT