EUR/USD – Euro Flat Ahead of Key US Data

EUR/USD is unchanged on Tuesday, as the pair trades in the low-1.22 range in the European session. The euro remains under pressure, as the currency trades at its lowest level since August 2012. On the release front, French Consumer Spending bounced back in November with a gain of 0.4%. In the US, it’s a day packed with releases ahead of the Christmas holiday. There are four key events on the calendar – Core Durable Goods Orders, Final GDP, UoM Consumer Sentiment and New Homes. With the markets having plenty of data to assess, we could see some movement from EUR/USD during the North American session.

It was a disappointing start to the week for US releases, as Existing Home Sales fell to 4.93 million in November, its lowest level in six months. The markets had expected a reading of 5.21 million. The weak reading followed the October release of 5.26 million, which was its best showing in over a year. Later on Tuesday, we’ll get a look at New Home Sales. Little change is expected in the upcoming release, with an estimate of 461 thousand.

The Eurozone economy continues to struggle with low growth and weak inflation, but recent releases out of Germany, the Eurozone’s largest economy, give room for some optimism. The January forecast for German Consumer Climate came in at 9.0 points, a notch above the estimate of 8.9 points. This marked the fourth straight rise for the indicator, pointing to stronger optimism from consumers as we head into the New Year. These strong numbers come on the heels of German Business Climate, which improved to 105.5 points, up from 104.4 a month earlier. This edged above the forecast of 105.4 points. On the inflation front, German PPI, which tracks manufacturing inflation, improved to 0.0% in November, up from -0.2% a month earlier. Like the consumer confidence indicator, this release is on an upward trend. Strong German consumer and business confidence numbers are welcome news, as the Eurozone economy continues to struggle.

EUR/USD for Tuesday, December 23, 2014

EUR/USD December 23 at 10:40 GMT

EUR/USD 1.2230 H: 1.2273 L: 1.2214

EUR/USD Technical

• EUR/USD is listless, showing no change in the Asian or European sessions.
• 1.2143 is a strong support level.
• 1.2286 is a weak resistance line. 1.2407 is stronger.
• Current range: 1.2143 to 1.2286

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 1.2143, 1.2042, 119.26 and 118.02
• Above: 1.2286, 1.2407, 1.2518, 1.2688 and 1.2806

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

EUR/USD ratio is unchanged on Tuesday. This is consistent with the pair’s movement, as the euro has shown no movement. The ratio has a majority of long positions, indicative of trader bias towards the euro breaking out of range and moving to higher ground.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

• 7:45 French Consumer Spending. Estimate 0.2%. Actual 0.4%.
• 9:00 Italian Retail Sales. Estimate 0.2%. Actual 0.o%.
• 13:30 US Core Durable Goods Orders. Estimate 1.1%.
• 13:30 US Final GDP. Estimate 4.3%.
• 13:30 US Durable Goods Orders. Estimate 3.0%.
• 13:30 US Final GDP Price Index. Estimate 1.4%.
• 14:00 Belgian NBB Business Climate. Estimate -5.8 points.
• 14:00 US HPI. Estimate 0.3%.
• 14:55 US Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment. Estimate 93.5 points.
• 14:55 US Revised UoM Inflation Expectations.
• 15:00 US New Home Sales. Estimate 461K.
• 15:00 US Core PCE Price Index. Estimate 0.1%.
• 15:00 US Personal Spending. Estimate 0.5%.
• 15:00 US Personal Income. Estimate 0.6%.
• 15:00 US Richmond Manufacturing Index. Estimate 8 points.

* Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

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