EUR/USD – Euro shrugs off soft German business climate

EUR/USD has edged higher in the Monday session, erasing much of the losses seen on Friday. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.1369, up 0.29% on the day. On Sunday, European Union leaders formally endorsed the Brexit withdrawal agreement. German Ifo Business Climate dipped to 102.3, shy of the estimate of 102.0 points. Later in the day, ECB President Mario Draghi will testify before the European Parliament Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee. There are no U.S. events on the schedule. On Tuesday, the U.S. releases CB Consumer Confidence, which is forecast to dip to 136.2 points.

A milestone of sorts was reached on Sunday, as the 27 EU leaders gave their approval to the Brexit withdrawal agreement, as well as a political declaration on economic relations between Britain and the EU after Brexit. The event was solemn, and EU leaders took pains to warn British parliamentarians that the EU will not agree to any further concessions. Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte summed up the mood in Brussels, saying “there is no Plan B”. The EU has signaled that the deal signed on Sunday is “take it or leave it” – if the U.K. doesn’t sign on, the result will be a hard Brexit which could be catastrophic for the British economy. Prime Minister May joined the summit on Sunday and again urged British lawmakers to approve the deal, saying it met most of Britain’s demands. Still, May will have an uphill battle pushing the deal through parliament, with the Labor party and many Conservative MPs set to vote against the deal.

German GDP and PMI reports pointed downwards on Friday, putting pressure on the euro. Final GDP declined 0.2% in the third quarter, in line with expectations. This marked the first decline since 2014 and was identical to Preliminary GDP, which was released last week. Manufacturing PMI fell to 51.6, pointing to a stagnant manufacturing sector. This marked a fourth straight drop in manufacturing activity. Services PMI dropped lower, with a reading of 53.3 points. Both indicators missed their forecasts. The contraction in growth has weak PMIs is bound to raise concerns – is the long German expansion over? German officials attributed the weak GDP releases to new emission standards for German cars, but it’s likely that the drop can also be attributed to a weaker global economy due to the ongoing trade war between the U.S. and China. With no sign that the two super-economies will reach an agreement anytime soon, the eurozone economy could face more headwinds, which in turn could weigh on the euro.

European Open – Higher as EU27 Backs Brexit Deal

Kiwi slips as retail sales slow

Italy to change budget stance lifts risk appetite

EUR/USD Fundamentals

Sunday (November 25)

  • All Day – EU Economic Summit

Monday (November 26)

  • 4:00 German Ifo Business Climate. Estimate 102.3. Actual 102.00
  • 9:00 ECB President Draghi Speaks

Tuesday (November 27)

  • 10:00 US CB Consumer Confidence. Estimate 136.2

*All release times are EST

*Key events are in bold

EUR/USD for Monday, November 26, 2018

EUR/USD for November 26 at 6:05 EST

Open: 1.1335 High: 1.1384 Low: 1.1326 Close: 1.1368

EUR/USD Technical

S1 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.1120 1.1212 1.1300 1.1434 1.1553 1.1685

EUR/USD posted small gains in the Asian session but has edged higher in European trade

  • 1.1300 is providing support
  • 1.1434 is the next resistance line
  • Current range: 1.1300 to 1.1434

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.1300, 1.1212, 1.1120 and 1.0992
  • Above: 1.1434, 1.1553 and 1.1685

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Market Analyst at OANDA
A highly experienced financial market analyst with a focus on fundamental analysis, Kenneth Fisher’s daily commentary covers a broad range of markets including forex, equities and commodities. His work has been published in several major online financial publications including, Seeking Alpha and FXStreet. Based in Israel, Kenny has been a MarketPulse contributor since 2012.