- Canada Ivey PMI remains in expansion territory
- Canada, US job reports expected to decline
The Canadian dollar has steadied on Thursday. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3728, down 0.12%.
The Canadian currency has stabilized after a nasty four-day slide, in which it declined 1.9%. The US dollar continues to look strong against the majors, as “US exceptionalism” continues to make the greenback attractive to investors.
The Canadian dollar is also getting squeezed by falling oil prices, as oil is a major export for Canada. Crude oil prices slid around $5 on Wednesday, its biggest daily drop in over a year, and fell further on Thursday before recovering. The rise in bond yields, which have raised fears of a global economic slowdown are weighing on investor sentiment towards oil.
On the economic calendar, the Canada Ivey PMI eased slightly in September to 53.1, down from 53.5 in August, but easily beat the market consensus of 50.8. The PMI has indicated expansion in economic activity in eight out of the past nine readings. As well, the job creation component rose from 58.5 to 54.8 in August, marking a six-month high.
These are encouraging figures for the Canadian economy, which has run into some headwinds, such as a flatlined GDP in August. Canada’s economy contracted in the second quarter, and a repeat in Q3 would indicate a technical recession.
The Canadian dollar could show some volatility on Friday, with the US and Canada both releasing employment reports for September. Canada is expected to have added 20,000 jobs in September, which would be half of the gain in August of 39,900. The Bank of Canada will be keeping a close eye on wage growth, which is projected to rise to 5.5% y/y, compared to 5.2% in August.
All eyes will be on the US nonfarm payrolls, which is showing signs of cracks, with three straight releases below the 200,000 mark. The August release came in at 187,000 and the consensus estimate for September stands at 170,000. Wage growth is expected to tick up to 0.3%, compared to 0.2% in August. An unexpected reading in the NFP or wage growth reports could have a significant effect on the US dollar on Friday.
- USD/CAD faces resistance at 1.3806 and 1.3864
- 1.3695 and 1.3638 are the next support lines
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