AUD/JPY Technical: Bulls got stalled again at 200-day MA

  • The medium-term up move of AUD/JPY from the 24 March 2023 swing low of 86.06 got stalled again at the key 200-day moving average.
  • Short-term downside movement seems to have resurfaced as indicated by the 4-hour RSI.
  • Key resistance to watch will be at 92.70.

Fig 1: AUD/JPY trend as of 26 May 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart)

The recent 460 pips rally of the AUD/JPY from its 26 April 2023 minor swing low of 87.87 has stalled at the key 200-day moving average again (now acting as a resistance at around 91.95), thrice so far (on 2 May, 19 May & 23 May) since it’s corrective medium-term up move from 24 March 2023 swing low of 86.06.

In the longer term, the price actions of AUD/JPY are likely considered to be still evolving in a major downtrend phase as it continues to oscillate within a major descending channel in place since its 13 September 2022 high of 92.01.

Short-term downside momentum seems to have resurfaced as observed by the 4-hour RSI oscillator where it has just started to inch down right below a corresponding resistance at the 67% level. The near-term support to watch will be at 90.70 followed by 87.80 (the 11 May swing low & the ascending trendline that is supporting the current corrective medium-term up move since the 24 March 2023 low).

On the flip side, clearance above the 92.70 key medium-term pivotal resistance invalidates the bearish tone to see the next resistance coming in at 95.55 (swing high areas of 21 October/1 November 2022 & close to the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the multi-month down move from 13 September 2022 high to 24 March 2023 low.

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Kelvin Wong

Kelvin Wong

Senior Market Analyst, Asia Pacific at OANDA
Based in Singapore, Kelvin Wong is a well-established senior global macro strategist with over 15 years of experience trading and providing market research on foreign exchange, stock markets, and commodities. Passionate about connecting the dots in the financial markets and sharing perspectives around trading and investment, Kelvin Wong is an expert in using a unique combination of fundamental and technical analyses, specializing in Elliott Wave and fund flow positioning, to pinpoint key reversal levels in the financial markets. In addition, over the last ten years, Kelvin has conducted numerous market outlook and trading-related seminars, as well as technical analysis training courses, for thousands of retail traders.