AUD/JPY Technical: Watch 92.80 key downside trigger level

  • Weak medium-term momentum may kickstart a medium-term downtrend phase for AUD/JPY.
  • Key short-term resistance stands at 93.70 with a potential downside trigger at 92.80.

This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “AUD/JPY: Minor downtrend remains intact” published on 28 June 2023. Click here for a recap.

Since its 19 June 2023 high of 97.67, the price actions of the AUD/JPY have continued to shape lower highs despite a retest and rebound on its key 200-day moving average after it printed an intraday low of 91.79 on 28 July 2023 ex-post Bank of Japan (BoJ)’s flexible yield curve control announcement on the 10-year Japanese Government Bond.

Technical analysis suggests that the AUD/JPY is now at heightened risk to evolve into a medium-term downtrend phase.

Challenging the 92.80 key downside trigger level

Fig 1:  AUD/JPY medium-term trend as of 21 Aug 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart)

Last Friday, 18 August, AUD/JPY managed to stall its prior three days of decline at a key support/inflection level of 92.80 which is being defined by a confluence of elements; the former swing high areas of 26 January/14 February/21 February 2023, and medium-term ascending trendline from 24 March 2023 low of 86.06.

However, elements are not showing signs of any bullish reversal at this juncture with bearish momentum reading seen in the daily RSI oscillator as it inched lower from the 50 level and has not reached oversold condition.

Price actions oscillate within a minor descending channel

Fig 2:  AUD/JPY minor short-term trend as of 21 Aug 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart)

The price actions of AUD/JPY have oscillated within a minor descending channel in place since 15 August 2023 minor swing high of 94.87 which suggested that further potential downside may materialize at least in the short-term horizon.

Watch the 93.70 key short-term pivotal resistance and a break below 92.80 near-term support exposes the next support at 92.00 (also the 200-day moving average) in the first step.

On the other hand, a clearance above 93.70 invalidates the bearish bias to see the next intermediate resistance at 94.90 (also the 50-day moving average).

Content is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please access the RSS feed or contact us at Visit to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © 2023 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Kelvin Wong

Kelvin Wong

Senior Market Analyst, OANDA at OANDA
Based in Singapore, Kelvin Wong is a well-established senior global macro strategist with over 15 years of experience trading and providing market research on foreign exchange, stock markets, and commodities.

Passionate about connecting the dots in the financial markets and sharing perspectives around trading and investment, Kelvin Wong is an expert in using a unique combination of fundamental and technical analyses, specializing in Elliott Wave and fund flow positioning, to pinpoint key reversal levels in the financial markets.

In addition, over the last ten years, Kelvin has conducted numerous market outlook and trading-related seminars, as well as technical analysis training courses, for thousands of retail traders.