Oil sellers fret over Saudi threat, API Inventory decline 6.799 million barrels

• API inventory data posts 6.799 million barrel drop vs 0.525 million expected build, Cushing rises 1.71 million
• Gold steadies as dollar rally extends
• Bitcoin streak of monthly gains is in jeopardy

Oil

On Wall Street, we have the mantra of ‘Don’t fight the Fed’, but that is currently being tested as investors continue to price in rate cuts for later this year.  Energy traders have quickly learned that when it comes to oil prices, you ‘Don’t fight the Saudis’ as they will do whatever it takes to defend prices. 

Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said, “I keep advising them that they will be ouching – they did ouch in April.” The Saudis are not comfortable with oil near the low-$70s and they will likely support further production cuts if it looks like oil prices could be heading back to the mid-$60s. 

WTI crude pushed higher after oil inventories posted an unexpected large draw.

Gold

Gold prices are wavering as investors digest a debt deal impasse and further signs that inflation could be sticky.  Safe-haven flows on debt deal doubts are growing as we move a day closer to the debatable X-date. The risk that the government could miss some debt payments is growing and that should lead to some market stress.  What is complicating the gold trade is that US economic data is showing that the service sector remains strong and rising new home sales could keep inflationary pressures going. 

Gold is making an attempt to recapture the $2000 level and that should hold as debt drama grows.  Rising risks to the outlook should keep investors scrambling for safety and that should benefit gold.  In addition to the debt deal impasse, rising tensions with China, and banking fears should keep investors defensive. 

Bitcoin

Bitcoin is steadying as investors battle debt-ceiling uncertainty and start to become more pessimistic about stocks. The cryptoverse is still very weak as too many companies are struggling to connect with traditional banking.  The crypto space can’t grow given the current regulatory and banking environment and that should limit whatever gains we see.   

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