New Zealand dollar extends losses as GDP contracts

The New Zealand dollar has had a busy week, which is not surprising given the turmoil which has gripped the markets. NZD/USD has extended its losses on Thursday and is trading at 0.6162, down 0.40%.

New Zealand GDP declines 

The markets were braced for a soft GDP report for Q4, but the decline was sharper than expected. GDP slowed to 2.2% y/y, down from 6.4% in Q3 and shy of the estimate of 3.3%. On a monthly basis, GDP fell 0.6%, following a gain of 2.0% in Q3 and shy of the estimate of -0.2%. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand had projected 0.7% growth, and the miss could mean the central bank will ease up on the pace of rate hikes.

The economy is showing weakness across the board, including manufacturing, consumer spending and trade. The RBNZ had projected that the economy would tip into a recession in the second quarter of 2023, but the contraction in Q4 may signal that the economy is already in recession. The forecast for Q1 of 2023 is gloomy, exacerbated by the severe flooding in January and February.

Given this bleak backdrop, the central bank may have to back its tightening plans. The markets had priced in the RBNZ hiking the cash rate by another 75 basis points to 5.50% by the third quarter, but this has fallen to 5.10%. The RBNZ meets next on April 5 and the market is 50/50 on whether the next hike will be 25 or 50 basis points.

In the US, today’s data was a mixed bag. Unemployment claims fell to 192,000, down from 212,000 and lower than the forecast of 205,000. This points to a resilient US labour market, a key pillar of support for the Fed’s hawkish rate stance. Manufacturing has been struggling and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index ticked higher to -23.2, compared to -24.3 prior and well below the forecast of 14.5 points. This release follows the Empire State Manufacturing Index, which tumbled to -24.6, down from -5.8 and below the forecast of -8.0 points.

.

NZD/USD Technical

  • NZD/USD is testing support at 0.6149. Below, there is support at 0.6071
  • 0.6212 and 0.6290 are the next resistance lines

Content is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please access the RSS feed or contact us at info@marketpulse.com. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © 2023 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Market Analyst at OANDA
A highly experienced financial market analyst with a focus on fundamental analysis, Kenneth Fisher’s daily commentary covers a broad range of markets including forex, equities and commodities. His work has been published in several major online financial publications including Investing.com, Seeking Alpha and FXStreet. Based in Israel, Kenny has been a MarketPulse contributor since 2012.