Crude prices got an unexpected boost from a US economy that doesn’t want to break. Another round of US data supported the argument that this economy still could get a soft landing, which is very positive for the short-term crude demand outlook. The problem with the long-term growth outlook for the US economy is that it needs a recession in order for inflation to get tamed. Strong data is not necessarily good news for winning the war against inflation and that will weigh on long-term US growth prospects.
Improving news with China’s COVID situation and a resilient US economy should keep oil prices supported above the $80 region.
Gold is softening a bit as better-than-expected US GDP data supports the argument that the Fed could still deliver a soft landing. Gold’s rally was on hold until the FOMC decision, so this morning’s weakness to strong GDP and jobless claims data was an easy trade. Safe-haven demand is still needed as the consumer is clearly weakening here and we will probably need to wait a little longer for GDP and claims data to catch up.
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