No more festive cheer

A mixed start to trading on Tuesday as traders return following the festive break to some rather gloomy forecasts for the coming year.

The IMF is among those warning of a tough year, more so than the one we’ve just left, as the simultaneous slowing down of the US, EU, and China takes its toll. Of course, all forecasts at this moment are subject to enormous uncertainty around the war in Ukraine, inflation, interest rates, and China’s Covid response, among others, but it seems almost everyone is going into 2023 with a healthy dose of trepidation.

And following a series of nasty shocks last year, who can blame them? There is the potential for surprises this year to be of a more positive nature, of course, but as it stands, the outlook is understandably gloomy and will remain so unless something significant changes, either on the war in Ukraine or inflation.

If inflationary pressures remain stubborn – and a strong, successful transition from zero-Covid to zero restrictions could enable that – then central banks will have little choice but to continue tightening monetary policy in order to bring it down. That is something the IMF strongly urged them to do, with stubbornly high inflation deemed a far greater risk over the longer term.

As far as the economic calendar is concerned this week, we’re easing ourselves back in today with mostly revised PMIs and other tier-three data. Things will pick up on that front from tomorrow, with the December Fed minutes being released alongside some more significant data and that will continue into the end of the week when we get the first jobs report of the year.

One interesting release this morning came from China, where the Caixin manufacturing PMI painted a less pessimistic picture than the official number over the weekend. While the surveys are different in the kind of firms they cover, it was interesting that the official number pointed to greater concern around the sector at the moment. That said, there does seem to be some promise in the Caixin future output index which suggests firms are more optimistic about the longer-term outlook since Covid-zero was abandoned despite the prospect of near-term difficulties.


Bitcoin has remained quite stable recently, hovering in the $16,000-17,000 range over the last few weeks. That may come as a relief to the crypto crowd after another rough few months. The new year no doubt has plenty in store for cryptocurrencies but in the short term, the community may just be hoping for no new scandals that will drive investors away.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar:

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Craig Erlam

Craig Erlam

Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA at OANDA
Based in London, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a market analyst. With many years of experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while producing macroeconomic commentary. His views have been published in the Financial Times, Reuters, The Telegraph and the International Business Times, and he also appears as a regular guest commentator on the BBC, Bloomberg TV, FOX Business and SKY News. Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and is recognised as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.
Craig Erlam
Craig Erlam

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