Week Ahead – Into the festive season

US

Wall Street will have a busy week of economic data releases and a handful of important earnings.  Investors will pay close attention to Nike’s results after the bell on Tuesday. Nike could provide insight into how strong the Chinese consumer is and provide one of the latest updates for holiday spending.  Other key earnings include General Mills, Carmax, Micron, and FedEx. 

Housing economic indicators will be plentiful this week, with weakness expected across building permits, housing starts, existing home sales, and new home sales. Final Q3 GDP is expected to remain at 2.9% and the GPD price index should hold steady at 4.3%.  Personal income and spending data should soften but still remain positive, while consumer confidence is expected to slightly improve.  

EU 

As will be the case in many other countries next week, there isn’t too much of note to come from the eurozone next week. The ECB unofficially brought the curtain down on 2022 for the bloc with its 0.5% rate hike, while signaling more will follow. There are a few data points scheduled but nothing stands out that could be a game-changer.

UK 

Strike action is likely to dominate UK headlines over the festive period, with little else to talk about beyond the cost-of-living crisis. The BoE displayed two things with its 0.5% rate hike in December; it currently remains committed to defeating high inflation whatever the cost and there is no unified view on the correct course of action next year. The economy is already likely in recession and that will become clearer in the first quarter, at which point rate hikes will be harder to justify if inflation is falling. That is the focus now in the absence of any notable events next week, beyond a revised third-quarter GDP reading.

Russia

The war in Ukraine and whether either side will make a move over the next couple of weeks will be the key focus as far as Russia is concerned. The central bank has paused its rate-cutting cycle and beyond PPI, it’s very thin on the data front.

South Africa

There is nothing of note on the economic calendar next week. President Ramaphosa is seemingly safe for now, temporarily eradicating political risk from the rand, assuming he is re-elected party leader this weekend, as expected. 

Turkey

The CBRT previously indicated that it will pause its easing cycle which should make next week’s rate decision fairly straightforward and uneventful. If we weren’t talking about the CBRT, I would say that with more confidence. As it is, nothing would surprise me, barring a rate hike of course. 

Switzerland

The SNB hiked rates as expected to 1% and could go further in the future. Next week though looks a little flat, with the quarterly bulletin the only moderately interesting release.

China

China’s reopening is seeing a surge in cases that could test some healthcare capacity. Any announcements on major changes to policies might be delayed if this surge shows no signs of peaking.  

The focus will also fall on rates.  Both the 1-year and 5-year Loan Prime Rates are expected to remain steady at 3.65% and 4.30% respectively.  Efforts are ongoing to stabilize the property sector and commercial banks could lower their quotes on five-year loan prime rates by 10 basis points.  

India

No major data is scheduled for release. 

Australia & New Zealand

The minutes of the December 6th RBA policy decision will be dissected for any further clues to when they will finish raising rates.  RBA Governor Philip Lowe said that rate rises are “not on a pre-set course”.  

Economic data will be plentiful in New Zealand. Both Trade data and ANZ business confidence will be released on Tuesday. On Wednesday, credit card spending data will be released.   

Japan

The BoJ is expected to keep rates steady and maintain their dovish guidance. Policymakers want to see how bad global growth gets before removing stimulus.  Traders will look for any hints on whether the BoJ will review its policy in the near future. Attention will also be on whether core inflation continues to accelerate higher.  

Singapore

On Friday, the release of Singapore’s industrial production and CPI data will be closely watched.  Industrial production in November is expected to further weaken, while inflation is expected to slightly ease. 

Economic Calendar

Saturday, Dec. 17

Economic Events

The Central Economic Work Conference, an annual economic planning meeting of Chinese leaders concludes with an expected growth target to be discussed  

South Africa’s governing party, the African National Congress, meets in Johannesburg for its elective conference

Ireland’s parliament is expected to vote in Leo Varadkar as Taoiseach, or prime minister

Sunday, Dec. 18

Events

World Cup final in Qatar

Monday, Dec. 19

Economic Data/Events

US House committee investigating January 6th insurrection concludes

Germany IFO business climate

New Zealand consumer confidence, performance services index

ECB Vice President de Guindos addresses the Nuevo Economía Forum in Madrid

EU energy ministers meet in Brussels

Russian Defense Minister Shoigu travels to India for meetings with his Indian counterpart and other officials

Tuesday, Dec. 20

Economic Data/Events

US housing starts

Canada retail sales

China loan prime rates

Eurozone consumer confidence

Japan rate decision: Expected to hold rates steady

Mexico international reserves

New Zealand trade, business confidence

Taiwan export orders

Thailand car sales

ECB Governing Council member Kazimir presents updated economic forecasts for Slovakia in Bratislava

UK PM Sunak appears before Parliament’s Liaison Committee to discuss foreign affairs and the economy

Nike earnings

The Reserve Bank of Australia releases minutes from its December interest rate meeting

Wednesday, Dec. 21

Economic Data/Events

US existing home sales, US Conference Board consumer confidence

Australia leading index

Canada CPI

Hong Kong BoP

Japan machine tool orders

New Zealand credit card spending, consumer confidence

South Korea trade 20 days

EIA crude oil inventory report

RBI Gov Das to speak at a Business Standard event

Thursday, Dec. 22

Economic Data/Events

US Q3 final GDP, initial jobless claims, US Conference Board leading index

China Swift global payments

Japan leading index

Thailand trade

Turkey rate decision: May keep rates steady

UK GDP

Friday, Dec. 23

Economic Data/Events

US consumer income, new home sales, durable goods, University of Michigan consumer sentiment

US bond markets close at 2pm

Japan CPI, department store sales

Mexico trade

Singapore CPI, industrial production

Spain GDP

Taiwan industrial production, money supply

Thailand forward contracts, foreign reserves

The BOJ releases minutes of its October policy meeting

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