All eyes on the CPI

Stock markets are tentatively higher in Asia while Europe and the US are poised for a similarly modest start to trade in what is the start of a hectic 72 hours in the markets.

For so many weeks now, the December Fed decision has dominated the minds of traders, while sentiment in the markets has been dictated by how small changes in various data points influence the outcome of the meeting.

When a meeting or event generates this much hype, it can often disappoint and be something of an anticlimax but I’m not sure that will be the case this time. It’s not so much the decision itself but what accompanies it that will set the stage for next year.

For so long the question has been will the Fed hike into a recession. In that time it’s remained convinced that a soft landing can be achieved and the resilience of the economic data has supported that but unfortunately, the same resilience has also supported the case for more hikes and a higher terminal rate.

Last month’s CPI release gave investors real hope that in much the same way that inflation’s acceleration higher this year blew expectations out of the water, the path lower may also not be as gradual as feared. Unfortunately, some of the data since then hasn’t been so favourable – most notably the wages component of the jobs report – so a lot is now hanging on today’s release. Another number below forecasts of around 7.3%, year on year, could get the excitement flowing once more.

Jobs data keeps pressure on BoE

The pound is relatively steady after the release of the UK jobs data that was in line with market expectations. Unemployment rose marginally to 3.7% while wages rose by 6.1%. While the data does indicate some additional slack in the labour market, the wages number – despite falling well short of inflation – will be of concern to the BoE and ensure its foot remains firmly on the brake in the short term.

Steady despite FTX developments and Binance concerns

Bitcoin continues to trade around $17,000, undeterred by reports of Sam Bankman-Fried’s arrest and possible charges for money laundering against Binance. Withdrawals on the platform highlight the uncertainty and shattered confidence in the space, a desperation not to be caught up in another FTX event. Even when the situation looks very different. But that’s what fear does, especially in a situation where confidence has been so severely damaged, as it has in recent weeks.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar: www.marketpulse.com/economic-events/

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Craig Erlam

Craig Erlam

Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA at OANDA
Based in London, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a market analyst. With many years of experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while producing macroeconomic commentary. His views have been published in the Financial Times, Reuters, The Telegraph and the International Business Times, and he also appears as a regular guest commentator on the BBC, Bloomberg TV, FOX Business and SKY News. Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and is recognised as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.
Craig Erlam