Stocks lower on rising risks, Putin talks nuclear, Warnock wins, cryptos decline

US stocks declined as investors fixated over how bad of a recession will hit the US economy and weighed on geopolitical risks. ​ The economy is entering slowdown mode as final Q3 nonfarm productivity data was revised higher and labor costs were significantly revised lower. ​ ​ ​

Yield curve inversion deepens and nears a four-decade low which is clearly setting up this economy for a recession that won’t be a mild one. The US 10-year yield fell 7.1 basis points to 3.46%, with the 2s10s spread falling to -82 basis points.

Putin

Wall Street quickly got unnerved after President Putin said the risk of nuclear war is on the rise. ​ Putin noted that they have the most advanced weapons, but don’t want to wave it around. ​ He claims its own nuclear arsenal as a purely defensive deterrent. Russia is making a clear point that as long as they don’t see an attack on one of their territories, they won’t use nuclear weapons. ​

Politics

The final race for a US senate seat was decided and Senator Raphael Warnock was able to keep his seat after defeating Herschel Walker, a Trump-backed former NFL star, in the Georgia runoff. Surprisingly, this result means every incumbent was able to keep their seat. ​ The Democrats now have a 51 to 49 hold off the Senate, which makes Senator Manchin, the conservative democrat, slightly less powerful. ​ The Republicans did win the House so we still have a divided government. ​

The key takeaway from this election is that Trump-backed Republicans did not do well, so the party may make a strong push to abandon the former President. ​

Crypto

Bitcoin is down as risk appetite fades away on recession worries. ​ Bitcoin has massive resistance at the $17,500 level and that should hold leading up to next week’s FOMC decision. ​ Traders remain nervous about another crypto company going under or for another part of the cryptoverse verse to break. This is the wait-and-see part of crypto trading that has many opting for the sidelines. ​ Crypto could trade in ranges which might support intra-day volumes only. Long-term crypto bets that are waiting to be placed will require either a bullish fundamental trigger or a capitulation moment that has bitcoin testing a key technical level. ​

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Ed Moya

Ed Moya

Senior Market Analyst, The Americas at OANDA
With more than 20 years’ trading experience, Ed Moya is a senior market analyst with OANDA, producing up-to-the-minute intermarket analysis, coverage of geopolitical events, central bank policies and market reaction to corporate news. His particular expertise lies across a wide range of asset classes including FX, commodities, fixed income, stocks and cryptocurrencies. Over the course of his career, Ed has worked with some of the leading forex brokerages, research teams and news departments on Wall Street including Global Forex Trading, FX Solutions and Trading Advantage. Most recently he worked with TradeTheNews.com, where he provided market analysis on economic data and corporate news. Based in New York, Ed is a regular guest on several major financial television networks including CNBC, Bloomberg TV, Yahoo! Finance Live, Fox Business and Sky TV. His views are trusted by the world’s most renowned global newswires including Reuters, Bloomberg and the Associated Press, and he is regularly quoted in leading publications such as MSN, MarketWatch, Forbes, Breitbart, The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal. Ed holds a BA in Economics from Rutgers University.
Ed Moya