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Oil lower on demand woes, gold slumps

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Oil

Oil prices are getting punished as crude demand concerns show no signs of easing. ​ The world’s two largest economies are struggling here as China battles COVID and the US is seeing a significant drop in manufacturing activity.  China’s new case total rose above 23,000, which is the highest level since April and is approaching its record high. ​ Fears are growing that the spread won’t ease soon as cases have spread across populous regions of Guangzhou and Chongqing. ​

Some of the geopolitical risk that sent oil higher earlier this week is coming off the table. With no immediate escalation in the war in Ukraine, we could see energy traders fixate on the Russian crude price cap that takes hold early next month. ​ ​ ​

Inventory levels remain a key concern for the oil market so we might see limited downside from here.

Gold

Gold prices got beat up after a round of hawkish Fed speak reminded investors that the risks of the Fed taking rates above 5% are clearly there. ​ Fed’s Bullard’s comment that the policy rate is not yet ‘sufficiently restrictive’ is a big reminder that we need to see the labor market weaken significantly before we can price in the end of its tightening cycle. ​

A top has been put in place with gold and prices could soften towards the $1750 level. ​ ​ ​

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Ed Moya

Ed Moya

Contributing Author at OANDA
With more than 20 years’ trading experience, Ed Moya was a Senior Market Analyst with OANDA for the Americas from November 2018 to November 2023. His particular expertise lies across a wide range of asset classes including FX, commodities, fixed income, stocks and cryptocurrencies. Over the course of his career, Ed has worked with some of the leading forex brokerages, research teams and news departments on Wall Street including Global Forex Trading, FX Solutions and Trading Advantage. Prior to OANDA he worked with TradeTheNews.com, where he provided market analysis on economic data and corporate news. Based in New York, Ed is a regular guest on several major financial television networks including CNBC, Bloomberg TV, Yahoo! Finance Live, Fox Business, cheddar news, and CoinDesk TV. His views are trusted by the world’s most respected global newswires including Reuters, Bloomberg and the Associated Press, and he is regularly quoted in leading publications such as MSN, MarketWatch, Forbes, Seeking Alpha, The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal. Ed holds a BA in Economics from Rutgers University.
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