Steady post-inflation shock

Stock markets are a bit mixed on Thursday following a rollercoaster week in the run-up to, and aftermath of, the US inflation report.

Safe to say, investors got ahead of themselves in a desperate attempt to board the peak inflation train early. The collapse on Tuesday – carrying into Wednesday in Asia and Europe – looked quite severe on the face of it but it was simply an unwinding of positions built on the anticipation of a good set of numbers in the days leading up to it.

While the Fed is now almost certain to hike by 75 basis points next week and more in the months that follow than previously anticipated, the view still seems to be that Tuesday was a setback rather than a game changer. Confidence that we are at or near peak inflation is dented but not broken and this week serves as a reminder that as was the case on the way up, the path back to 2% will likely be littered with nasty surprises.

RBA will likely welcome labour market report

This will likely be the case for most central banks, not just the Fed, with the RBA seen to be in the early stages of its pivot towards slower tightening. After hiking rates by 50bps, markets are now pricing in a 25bps hike next month although as we’ve seen so often this year, that could quickly change with the data. The labour market figures today could support such a move, as employment rose a little less than expected while participation also rose, unexpectedly lifting the unemployment rate to 3.5%. The Aussie dollar rose after the release but has since given the bulk of that back.

PBOC leaves MLF unchanged and supports CNY

The PBOC’s battle to support the yuan continued on Thursday as it left the 1-year MLF rate unchanged at 2.75% and set a stronger fix on the currency. The result was around 200 billion yuan being withdrawn from the banking system, with the central bank stating that it would “keep banking system liquidity reasonably ample”. The dual threat of a slowing economy and tumbling currency against the dollar is posing quite the challenge for the central bank which is continuing to try and push back against both, with limited success.

Yen steady amid intervention warnings

The yen remains a key focus after a slew of intervention commentary yesterday which accompanied reports of a rate check by the BoJ. While officials have been keen to state that no warning of intervention will be forthcoming, nor perhaps even confirmation of it, the line in the sand around 145 against the dollar appears to have been drawn. The message was loud and clear and now it’s just a case of whether markets will respect it. That’s not always the case and we could see its resolve tested after 24 years without such action.

Will it be a “sell the fact” event?

Bitcoin has stabilised once more around $20,000 after Tuesday’s bruising encounter with the US inflation data. As we saw elsewhere, the cryptocurrency had rallied in anticipation of something more favourable but it wasn’t to be. With that now behind us, the question will become how the crypto space reacts to the Ethereum Merge. It’s been a long time in the making and the question on traders’ lips right now is will it be the next bullish catalyst for cryptos or a “sell the fact” event.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar: www.marketpulse.com/economic-events/

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Craig Erlam

Craig Erlam

Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA at OANDA
Based in London, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a market analyst. With many years of experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while producing macroeconomic commentary. His views have been published in the Financial Times, Reuters, The Telegraph and the International Business Times, and he also appears as a regular guest commentator on the BBC, Bloomberg TV, FOX Business and SKY News. Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and is recognised as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.
Craig Erlam
Craig Erlam

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