Risk aversion sweeps across Europe

European stock markets are plunging at the start of the week following a day of mixed trade in Asia, with Gazprom’s announcement on Friday weighing heavily on the bloc.

A bank holiday in the US often results in relatively quiet trade everywhere else but that’s certainly not looking the case today. The decision not to restart gas flows via Nord Stream 1 after an oil leak was apparently discovered has created enormous uncertainty in Europe going into the winter. The euro slipped to a new 20-year low against the dollar in response to the shutdown.

The decision conveniently came hours after the G7 agreed to an oil price cap and as countries announced they’re ahead of schedule in filling gas reserves. Many would argue it was only a matter of time until the decision was taken, with Europe having been squeezed over a number of months for one reason or another.

There have been reports that Gazprom could increase deliveries via Ukraine as a result of the shutdown but it’s not clear whether this would be enough to offset the loss of Nord Stream 1. And considering Siemens has claimed that such a leak would not ordinarily affect the operation of a turbine and is easily fixed, you have to wonder whether Russia would actually take that decision. A painful winter lies ahead.

A massive job for the incoming UK PM

The UK will discover who its new Prime Minister will be today, with Liz Truss the standout favourite to win the run-off against Rishi Sunak. Whoever is victorious, the job facing them is enormous, with the economy facing a long recession and eye-watering inflation. Alleviating one while not exacerbating the other will be the first job for the incoming Prime Minister and it won’t be easy, to put it mildly. There’s a huge amount of pessimism around the UK at the moment, as evident by the pound, which looks on course to fall to its lowest level since 1985 against the dollar.

Chinese headwinds strengthen

China is also facing numerous headwinds going into the end of the year, with Covid once again creating huge uncertainty. Beijing’s commitment to its zero-Covid policy has created major challenges for the economy this year and with mass testing taking place over the weekend and lockdowns being extended in Chengdu, that’s going to persist. ​

The pressure is being felt in the yuan which fell for a sixth month in August and is continuing to fall against the dollar. That’s despite the best efforts of the PBOC which continues to set the yuan fix stronger than markets expect.

To make matters worse, US President Biden is reportedly weighing up measures to limit US investment in Chinese tech firms. The US is becoming increasingly hawkish toward China and the latest move is another blow to its tech space.

Major support being tested

Bitcoin is continuing to show resilience around $20,000 but that’s really being put to the test as risk aversion sweeps through the markets once more. It’s down 1% so far today and trading a little below that crucial support level. A significant break at this point could be really damaging, with the following key level below here being the June lows around $17,500. Considering the outlook for risk appetite in the near term, it’s not looking good.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar: www.marketpulse.com/economic-events/

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Craig Erlam

Craig Erlam

Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA at OANDA
Based in London, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a market analyst. With many years of experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while producing macroeconomic commentary. His views have been published in the Financial Times, Reuters, The Telegraph and the International Business Times, and he also appears as a regular guest commentator on the BBC, Bloomberg TV, FOX Business and SKY News. Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and is recognised as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.
Craig Erlam
Craig Erlam

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