Oil and gold decline

Oil

Crude prices are falling as energy traders anticipate a brutal period for global growth. ​ China factory activity remains depressed and another eurozone record high inflation reading has raised the prospects of much more aggressive ECB tightening that could trigger a severe recession.

WTI crude pared losses after the EIA crude oil inventory report posted a hefty decline. ​ The EIA report clearly showed demand destruction is showing up as gasoline demand struggles and crude exports soften. ​ US crude production rebounded and is back above the 12 million bpd level.

Crude prices have been trending lower as the oil market doesn’t look that tight anymore, but this last wave of weakness will likely be followed by a reduction in OPEC+ output.

Gold

Gold is struggling as inflationary pressures will keep all the major central banks with an aggressive inflation tightening stance. Rising global bond yields is kryptonite for gold and that trend might last a little while longer. Eventually, we will see global recessionary concerns cap tightening cycles and that should be what is needed for gold bulls to return.

Gold is still vulnerable to a break of the $1700 level, but long-term bets should start to return as investors scramble for safe-havens.

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Ed Moya

Ed Moya

Contributing Author at OANDA
With more than 20 years’ trading experience, Ed Moya was a Senior Market Analyst with OANDA for the Americas from November 2018 to November 2023. His particular expertise lies across a wide range of asset classes including FX, commodities, fixed income, stocks and cryptocurrencies. Over the course of his career, Ed has worked with some of the leading forex brokerages, research teams and news departments on Wall Street including Global Forex Trading, FX Solutions and Trading Advantage. Prior to OANDA he worked with TradeTheNews.com, where he provided market analysis on economic data and corporate news. Based in New York, Ed is a regular guest on several major financial television networks including CNBC, Bloomberg TV, Yahoo! Finance Live, Fox Business, cheddar news, and CoinDesk TV. His views are trusted by the world’s most respected global newswires including Reuters, Bloomberg and the Associated Press, and he is regularly quoted in leading publications such as MSN, MarketWatch, Forbes, Seeking Alpha, The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal. Ed holds a BA in Economics from Rutgers University.