Crude prices are falling as energy traders anticipate a brutal period for global growth. China factory activity remains depressed and another eurozone record high inflation reading has raised the prospects of much more aggressive ECB tightening that could trigger a severe recession.
WTI crude pared losses after the EIA crude oil inventory report posted a hefty decline. The EIA report clearly showed demand destruction is showing up as gasoline demand struggles and crude exports soften. US crude production rebounded and is back above the 12 million bpd level.
Crude prices have been trending lower as the oil market doesn’t look that tight anymore, but this last wave of weakness will likely be followed by a reduction in OPEC+ output.
Gold is struggling as inflationary pressures will keep all the major central banks with an aggressive inflation tightening stance. Rising global bond yields is kryptonite for gold and that trend might last a little while longer. Eventually, we will see global recessionary concerns cap tightening cycles and that should be what is needed for gold bulls to return.
Gold is still vulnerable to a break of the $1700 level, but long-term bets should start to return as investors scramble for safe-havens.
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