Oil and gold decline

Oil

Crude prices are falling as energy traders anticipate a brutal period for global growth. ​ China factory activity remains depressed and another eurozone record high inflation reading has raised the prospects of much more aggressive ECB tightening that could trigger a severe recession.

WTI crude pared losses after the EIA crude oil inventory report posted a hefty decline. ​ The EIA report clearly showed demand destruction is showing up as gasoline demand struggles and crude exports soften. ​ US crude production rebounded and is back above the 12 million bpd level.

Crude prices have been trending lower as the oil market doesn’t look that tight anymore, but this last wave of weakness will likely be followed by a reduction in OPEC+ output.

Gold

Gold is struggling as inflationary pressures will keep all the major central banks with an aggressive inflation tightening stance. Rising global bond yields is kryptonite for gold and that trend might last a little while longer. Eventually, we will see global recessionary concerns cap tightening cycles and that should be what is needed for gold bulls to return.

Gold is still vulnerable to a break of the $1700 level, but long-term bets should start to return as investors scramble for safe-havens.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Ed Moya

Ed Moya

Senior Market Analyst, The Americas at OANDA
With more than 20 years’ trading experience, Ed Moya is a senior market analyst with OANDA, producing up-to-the-minute intermarket analysis, coverage of geopolitical events, central bank policies and market reaction to corporate news. His particular expertise lies across a wide range of asset classes including FX, commodities, fixed income, stocks and cryptocurrencies. Over the course of his career, Ed has worked with some of the leading forex brokerages, research teams and news departments on Wall Street including Global Forex Trading, FX Solutions and Trading Advantage. Most recently he worked with TradeTheNews.com, where he provided market analysis on economic data and corporate news. Based in New York, Ed is a regular guest on several major financial television networks including CNBC, Bloomberg TV, Yahoo! Finance Live, Fox Business and Sky TV. His views are trusted by the world’s most renowned global newswires including Reuters, Bloomberg and the Associated Press, and he is regularly quoted in leading publications such as MSN, MarketWatch, Forbes, Breitbart, The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal. Ed holds a BA in Economics from Rutgers University.
Ed Moya