Gold benefits on dollar rally break, oil rises

Gold edges higher as dollar rally halts

Non-interest-bearing gold got crushed early as more global central bank rate hikes are getting priced in. ​ Gold is edging higher as the dollar rally halted as the euro rises on expectations the ECB will deliver more rate hikes than investors initially thought. ​ If the dollar does not rally here, that could provide some relief for gold. ​ If equities remain in risk aversion mode as the speculative money that bought risky assets this month grows nervous that economic growth is about to collapse, gold might be able to stabilize here. ​

Gold was vulnerable to a plunge towards $1700 but it is starting to show some resilience. ​ With the UK on holiday, today’s moves might be meaningless. ​ The true test for gold will come tomorrow. ​

Oil

The one trade that everyone can agree upon is that the oil market will likely remain tight. ​ Oil rallied on rising risks of a potential civil war that could put Libyan output at risk and over growing expectations that OPEC+ is positioning themselves to cut production. ​ What is also helping oil today is that despite risk aversion running wild, the dollar rally is on hold. ​

Oil has been trending lower but the supply side risks are too great and prices need to find a home above the $100 a barrel level. ​

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Ed Moya

Ed Moya

Contributing Author at OANDA
With more than 20 years’ trading experience, Ed Moya was a Senior Market Analyst with OANDA for the Americas from November 2018 to November 2023. His particular expertise lies across a wide range of asset classes including FX, commodities, fixed income, stocks and cryptocurrencies. Over the course of his career, Ed has worked with some of the leading forex brokerages, research teams and news departments on Wall Street including Global Forex Trading, FX Solutions and Trading Advantage. Prior to OANDA he worked with TradeTheNews.com, where he provided market analysis on economic data and corporate news. Based in New York, Ed is a regular guest on several major financial television networks including CNBC, Bloomberg TV, Yahoo! Finance Live, Fox Business, cheddar news, and CoinDesk TV. His views are trusted by the world’s most respected global newswires including Reuters, Bloomberg and the Associated Press, and he is regularly quoted in leading publications such as MSN, MarketWatch, Forbes, Seeking Alpha, The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal. Ed holds a BA in Economics from Rutgers University.