Crude prices initially edged higher as we get further reports that OPEC+ is seriously considering lowering production and after the latest round of US economic data and Fed speak suggests the economy is still in a good position to handle more rate increases. Oil will start to form a key trading range until Fed Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole. We could get a major move in the dollar post-Powell and that could trigger a major one-way move for commodities. The oil fundamentals still support crude prices to make a move above the $100 a barrel level, but first, we will have to wait-and-see if the dollar cooperates.
Oil is seesawing ahead of Jackson Hole and that will probably continue until we hear from Fed Chair Powell.
Gold got a limited boost as the dollar softened ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole. Another round of US economic data and Fed speak supported the idea that the Fed will remain aggressive tightening policy until inflation is under control. Investors want to see if Fed Chair Powell locks the Fed in for another massive 75 basis point rate increase in September, but he will likely stick to the data-dependency script and leave it up to the September 13th inflation report.
Gold will likely consolidate between the $1750 to $1780 zone leading up to Fed Chair Powell’s speech.
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